UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 14, 2024|

Another card of UFC action will take place at the Apex this weekend, headlined by former title challenger Alex Perez +155, taking on undefeated prospect Tatsuro Taira -192 at Flyweight. I went over that fight and every other matchup on the card, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 6/13/2024

Alex Perez +155 vs. Tatsuro Taira -192

Flyweights take the main event spotlight in this intriguing matchup with big title implications. Alex Perez is a powerful striker who has returned in good form since injuries forced him to take several years away from consistent competition. He is coming into this off an upset win over Matheus Nicolau, where he landed a brutal combination in round two, demonstrating that his dangerous striking is still effective at the top of the division. Tatsuro Taira is a talented submission artist who is just twenty-four years old and has rapidly improved all aspects of his game. He has fought five times in the UFC already, although never against ranked competition, leaving questions about whether his style will work against the best in the world.

I'll pick Perez here as he has shown solid wrestling defense, and I expect him to have an advantage in the striking, although with how young Taira is and how much he could improve, he is difficult to bet against.

Pick: Perez O/U: Over 2.5 -133/ Under +105


Miles Johns -139 vs. Douglas Silva de Andrade +113

Bantamweight veterans square off here in this closely lined clash. Miles Johns is a stocky wrestler with a big right hand, although he isn't the highest-volume puncher and can be out-paced. Douglas Silva de Andrade is a solid boxer with a high pace and a decent ground game as well.

I lean towards Silva de Andrade here as I see him being the more active fighter.

Pick: Silva de Andrade O/U: Over 2.5 -189

Lucas Almeida +160 vs. Timmy Cuamba -200

Featherweights with high knockout percentages will clash here in this fun matchup. Lucas Almeida is a dangerous striker with real power in his hands, although his wrestling and grappling have been issues, as Pat Sabatini dominated him in that department. Timmy Cuamba is a young and well-rounded fighter with good boxing and wrestling that he mixes well.

I like Cuamba here as he is the much more well-rounded fighter who can use his wrestling to dominate this matchup.

Pick: Cuamba O/U: Under 2.5 -137


Garrett Armfield -192 vs. Brady Hiestand +155

Well-rounded Bantamweights got elevated to the main card in what should be a fun fight. Garrett Armfield is a tough boxer with a good ability to defend the grappling, as he showed in his last fight with Brad Katona. Brady Hiestand is a fast-paced and young fighter coming in off back-to-back victories where he showed solid wrestling and relentless striking.

My pick here is Armfield, as I see him having a striking edge and defending the grappling. However, my bet here is the fight to go the distance., I see both men as durable, with good cardio, but not the best finishers.

Pick: Armfield O/U: Over 2.5 -172

Asu Almabaev -588 vs. Jose Johnson +420

Flyweight grapplers face off in this exciting matchup. Asu Almabaev is a strong grappler who has looked good in two UFC appearances, showing his submission ability against Ode Osbourne. Jose Johnson is a six-foot-tall Flyweight making his debut at the weight class here; he has powerful striking and has had some highlight knockouts, although he has been outwrestled.

I'm picking Almabaev here as I see him having too much of an advantage in the grappling for Johnson to overcome despite his size, which may also come at the cost of a tough weight cut.

Pick: Almabaev O/U: Over 2.5 +115


Adam Fugitt +101 vs. Josh Quinlan -123

Welterweight finishers clash here in this must-see matchup. Adam Fugitt is a big and tough guy for the division with solid straight punches and an alright submission attack. Josh Quinlan is a big puncher, although he has been exposed defensively in his last few fights for poor habits, which has led to him taking a lot of damage.

I've got Fugitt here as Quinlan has struggled recently against fighters with a reach advantage against him, and Fugitt will have the grappling upside.

Pick: Fugitt O/U: Under 2.5 -133

Tagir Ulanbekov -227 vs. Joshua Van +180

One of the best fights on the card here at Flyweight will end off the prelims. Tagir Ulanbekov is a tall and long grappler who has used his dangerous choke game to submit back-to-back, including Cody Durden, a strong grappler. Joshua Van is an interesting prospect who builds with his solid boxing that uses a body-heavy attack as the fight goes on.

I'm taking Ulanbekov in this one, as his veteran grappling attack is too much for the young and inexperienced Van at this point.

Pick: Ulanbekov O/U: Under 2.5 -102


Nate Maness -556 vs. Jimmy Flick +400

Flyweight finishers clash here in a fight that is likely to end in the first round. Nate Maness is a tough brawler coming off an early knockout, in which he showed his awareness on the ground to avoid the submission. Jimmy Flick is a talented submission artist who showed his toughness in weathering an early storm against Malcolm Gordon to find a submission in the second round his last time out.

At this price, I am very tempted to bet on Flick. I understand Maness being the favorite, but this price is crazy, given Flick's toughness and ability to force bad positions on the ground. I'll say the value side here is likely Jimmy Flick.

Pick: Flick O/U: Under 1.5 -204

Jeka Saragih -357 vs. Westin Wilson +275

Featherweights looking to build traction in the division square off here. Jeka Saragih is a powerful and entertaining striker who showed he is dangerous with a huge upset win over Lucas Alexander last time out. Westin Wilson has had a tough run in the UFC, losing each of his fights in the first round, showing very limited striking, and going for leg locks rather than advancing position.

I'll pick Saragih, as his power punching will likely result in a knockout, but I'm not sure he is worth taking any risk betting-wise at this steep price tag.

Pick: Saragih O/U: Under 1.5 -278


Shayilan Nuerdanbieke +155 vs. Melquizael Costa -196

Featherweights looking to bounce back from stoppage losses go head-to-head here. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke is a very experienced fighter with a mix of decent boxing and wrestling skills, although the level of competition he faces is relatively low. Melquizael Costa is a dangerous fighter with decent submissions and power, although his wrestling defense and cardio have caused him issues.

I lean towards Costa here as I see him as the more dangerous fighter, but I'll pass on betting on him at this price because of the inconsistency of his game.

Pick: Costa O/U: Under 2.5 +111

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Adam Fugitt +105

Garrett Armfield vs. Brady Hiestand Fight Goes The Distance -150

Tagir Ulanbekov + Timmy Cuamba +115

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