UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Ribas vs. Namajunas Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
March 21, 2024|

The UFC is in the Apex for another week of fights headlined by fan favorite Amanda Ribas +180, taking on former champion Rose Namajunas -210 in the Flyweight main event. I went over that fight and every other matchup on the card to give my picks and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 3/20/2024 2:25 PM EST

Amanda Ribas +180 vs. Rose Namajunas -210

Flyweights with crowd-pleasing styles will square off here in our main event. Amanda Ribas has proven she has incredible submission skills already, but in her last fight, she showed a new level of striking, getting the late finish with a beautiful spinning wheel kick after three hard rounds. Rose Namajunas is a former champion and earned that distinction by being a very skilled striker with unusual power for someone her size and the ability to mix in decent wrestling.

I like Namajunas here because she is a much higher-level striker and will be able to defend enough grappling to force a standup fight.

Pick: Namajunas O/U: Over 4.5 +110


Karl Williams -190 vs. Justin Tafa +165

The co-main event will feature a Heavyweight clash of styles. Karl Williams is a strong wrestler in this division who can consistently get takedowns, although he lacks much finishing ability. Justin Tafa replaces his brother in this matchup, and he will bring a similar style with a heavy-handed kickboxing attack.

I'm picking Williams here because his wrestling attack is far too much for Tafa to overcome with his limited skillset on the ground.

Pick: Williams O/U: Over 1.5 -165

Edmen Shahbazyan -200 vs. AJ Dobson +170

Middleweights looking to establish themselves will face off in this high-stakes matchup. Edmen Shahbazyan is an explosive finisher who is still very young despite being somewhat experienced in the UFC; he has phenomenal finishing ability, but when he fails to finish, his cardio often lets him down. AJ Dobson is a solid and well-rounded fighter with decent striking and a good wrestling game; he can lack urgency in fights, which is frustrating at times, but he has all the skill.

I'll go with Dobson here as the underdog as I see him weathering the early storm of Shahbazyan and taking over the second half of what will end up being a very close fight.

Pick: Dobson O/U: Over 2.5 +115


Payton Talbott -150 vs. Cameron Saaiman +130

It's a huge matchup here, as Bantamweight prospects will face off early in their careers. Payton Talbott comes in with a lot of hype following his debut ick Aguirre, where he secured the late finish; he has great cardio, building up his output over the fight. Cameron Saaiman has had some time in the UFC and has shown solid improvement with a high-volume striking game mixed in with good wrestling and ground and pound.

I'll go with Saaiman here as I expect him to have the upper hand in striking and defending the grappling, being the more experienced fighter at this level.

Pick: Saaiman O/U: Over 2.5 -185

Billy Quarantillo -136 vs. Youssef Zalal +116

Featherweights with a history of fun battles behind them will meet here. Billy Quarantillo is an all-action fighter with a high output and no fear of getting hit; he also has a solid ground game that he can mix in well. Youssef Zalal is back in the UFC here, and he had a solid run last time with some close decisions that didn't go his way, ultimately leading to his release.

I've got Quarantillo to win a decision here as I give him a slight edge in everything but durability, which is one of Zalal's best traits, with him having never been finished.

Pick: Quarantillo O/U: Over 2.5 -260


Luis Pajuelo +144 vs. Fernando Padilla -164

Featherweights who rarely go the distance matchup here. Luis Pajuelo makes his debut here after an impressive first-round knockout on Dana White's Contender Series. Fernando Padilla is a durable brawler with a good finishing instinct; he has some losses to lower-level competition outside the UFC, which is concerning, but he is scrappy.

I'll pick Padilla as he has competed with much higher-level competition.

Pick: Padilla O/U: Over 1.5 -200

Trey Ogden -145 vs. Kurt Holobaugh +125

Lightweight veterans are looking to climb to the ranks matchup in this one. Trey Ogden is coming in off an impressive showing against Nikolas Motta, where he was on his way to winning before a premature stoppage caused the fight to end in a no-contest. Kurt Holobaugh makes his first appearance here since winning The Ultimate Fighter with an excellent performance against Austin Hubbard in the finale.

I lean towards Holobaugh here as I haven't been very impressed with Ogden besides his last fight, and Holobaugh could be the higher-output fighter in a close matchup.

Pick: Holobaugh O/U: Over 2.5 -150


Ricardo Ramos -148 vs. Julian Erosa +128

Featherweight finishers face off in this electric matchup. Ricardo Ramos is an interesting case; he has shown a very high ceiling but also has had trouble on the scale and questionable submission defense. Julian Erosa is a tough veteran with a high-paced finishing style, but after being finished in the first round twice in a row and having already had durability questions, there is serious concern.

I'll go with Ramos to get a knockout here. It seems Erosa has taken as much damage as he can over his career and may not be able to compete at this level anymore.

Pick: Ramos O/U: Under 2.5 -160

Miles Johns -155 vs. Cody Gibson +135

Veteran Bantamweights will compete in this fun matchup. Miles Johns is a stocky wrestler with powerful punches, although he has relatively low output and is inconsistent with his performances. Cody Gibson is a high-pace striker with power in his punches and a solid wrestling background.

I've got Gibson here as I think he will put the pressure on Johns and either take home a clear decision win or get a late finish.

Pick: Gibson O/U: Over 2.5 -180


Steven Nguyen -164 vs. Jarno Errens +144

Featherweights who like to put on exciting fights will face off in this one. Steven Nguyen is a good boxer coming off a dominant win on the Contender Series. Jarno Errens will look to pick up his first UFC win here after losing his last two; he has a fun style mixing his striking and wrestling, but he has yet to find much success with it at this level.

I like Nguyen here as I see him landing the harder shots to dominate the striking.

Pick: Nguyen O/U: Under 2.5 +145

Montserrat Rendon +180 vs. Darya Zheleznyakova -210

Untested Bantamweights with clashing styles will compete here. Montserrat Rendon is a solid wrestler with a fundamental standup game. Darya Zheleznyakova is a wild striker who throws heavy, although her grappling isn't great, and she has been outwrestled before.

If Rendon can get this fight to the ground, she can control how this matchup plays out, so I will pick here.

Pick: Rendon O/U: Over 2.5 -280


Igor Severino +155 vs. Andre Lima -180

Undefeated young Flyweights will face off in this fantastic matchup. Igor Severino is twenty years old, but he has finished all seven of his pro wins by knockout or submission, showing a well-rounded finishing attack. Andre Lima is a very clean kickboxer who is very good at applying pressure; he has also shown solid grappling defensively.

I'll pick Lima here as he should be the better striker in what will mostly be a battle on the feet, and he also has more late-fight experience.

Pick: Lima O/U: Over 1.5 -175

Mohammed Usman +124 vs. Mick Parkin -144

Heavyweight prospects collide here in the first fight of the night. Mohammed Usman comes in on an impressive streak, having won his season of The Ultimate Fighter, and followed that up with two solid UFC wins, showing his powerful hands and good wrestling skills for his size. Mick Parkin looked good in his first two UFC showings, proving he has fast hands and can go the distance after finishing all his regional fights.

I like Parkin here, and I think he can get a finish as he will have a big speed advantage in the striking and is good enough to defend any wrestling from Usman.

Pick: Parkin O/U: Under 2.5 +130


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Cameron Saaiman +100

Cody Gibson +130

Billy Quarantillo by decision +140

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