UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
September 25, 2025|
3

The UFC is back in action this week as Light Heavyweights Carlos Ulberg and Dominick Reyes square off from the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, with a title shot in mind. I went over every matchup on the card to give my predictions and bets, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 9/25/2025

Carlos Ulberg -213 vs. Dominick Reyes +170

Top-ranked Light Heavyweights collide here in the main event, with the winner potentially next in line for the title. Carlos Ulberg is a skilled kickboxer who has won eight consecutive fights, showcasing good defensive movement and solid knockout power. Dominick Reyes is a dangerous striker who has won three straight fights by knockout, although his durability remains a major concern, given that he was knocked out three times in a row not long ago.

I'm taking Ulberg to find a knockout here, as he is a sharp and defensively responsible fighter with serious power. Over five rounds, I believe he will do enough damage to secure a finish over Reyes.

Prediction: Ulberg by 3rd Round TKO

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Jimmy Crute -189 vs. Ivan Erslan +155

Hard-hitting Light Heavyweights square off in this co-main event matchup. Jimmy Crute is a well-rounded finisher who returned to the win column in his last fight against Marcin Prachnio, although his cardio and durability had previously cost him several times in fights. Ivan Erslan is a stocky power puncher with a good right hand, although his takedown defence has gotten him in trouble so far in the UFC.

I'm gonna pick Erslan as the underdog here, as I feel he is strong enough to stuff the grappling of Crute early, and he will likely be the fresher fighter in the later rounds.

Prediction: Erslan by 2nd Round TKO

Jack Jenkins -294 vs. Ramon Taveras +230

Fun fight here at Featherweight between strikers not afraid of a brawl. Jack Jenkins is a kickboxer known for his devastating low kick, which has broken the legs of several opponents. Ramon Taveras is a boxer with real knockout power, although he can be a low-volume fighter and tends to slow down.

I'll go with Jenkins here, as he is a higher-volume and more diverse striker who is fighting with a friendly crowd behind him.

Prediction: Jenkins by Decision

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Jake Matthews -417 vs. Neil Magny +310

Matchup of veterans goes down here at Welterweight. Jake Matthews is a well-rounded fighter who has shown good boxing and is coming off a first-round submission victory over Chidi Njokuani. Neil Magny is a pressure fighter with a great clinch game that he uses to wear down opponents like he did to Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his last fight.

I'll pick Matthews here, as at this stage in both men's careers, the physical advantages of Matthews will be too much for Magny to overcome.

Prediction: Matthews by 3rd Round TKO

Louie Sutherland -105 vs. Justin Tafa -116

Heavyweights with a lot of first-round knockout wins between them collide here. Louie Sutherland is a stocky kickboxer who makes his debut here with a fun style that sees him throw kicks and big combinations. Justin Tafa is a hard-hitting kickboxer who has had all of his UFC wins come by first-round knockout, but he has shown serious issues with grappling and questionable durability.

It is difficult to have much confidence in either side of this very volatile matchup, but I'll pick Tafa purely based on his experience edge.

Prediction: Tafa by 1st Round KO

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Tom Nolan -156 vs. Charlie Campbell +126

Fantastic matchup of up-and-coming Lightweights kicks off the main card. Tom Nolan is a very tall striker who utilizes his reach effectively and has shown improvements to his overall game in the UFC, such as using his grappling against Viacheslav Borshchev. Charlie Campbell is an aggressive fighter with a strong offensive game, featuring powerful kickboxing and some grappling, as he demonstrated against Trevor Peek.

I'm betting on Campbell here as the underdog. If you look past the layoff and physical disadvantages, Campbell has looked to be a much better fighter who has had more time to develop his game, while both men have similar durability concerns. With that, Charlie Campbell's moneyline is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Campbell by 2nd Round KO Bet: Campbell MoneyLine (Best Bet)

Navajo Stirling -244 vs. Rodolfo Bellato +190

Light Heavyweight strikers square off here in the featured prelim. Navajo Stirling is an undefeated prospect training at City Kickboxing, having shown solid promise through two decision wins in the UFC. Rodolfo Bellato is a tricky striker who has had several comebacks already in the UFC, although this also showed his tendency to get hurt badly, as Jimmy Crute and Ihor Potieria nearly finished him.

I took Stirling to get his first UFC knockout here, as he looked much better in his second UFC fight, leading me to expect another jump in front of a home crowd here against a weaker opponent who has notorious durability concerns despite no official UFC knockout losses.

Prediction: Stirling by 1st Round TKO Bet: Stirling by TKO/KO

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Andre Petroski -179 vs. Cam Rowston +144

Fun matchup between well-rounded fighters here at Middleweight. Andre Petroski is a stocky grappler with good submissions and improving striking skills, although his durability and cardio have appeared inconsistent. Cam Rowston quickly turns around after earning a contract on Dana White's Contender Series just weeks ago.

I like Petroski here, as he can match or beat Rowston anywhere, while also being the more experienced fighter.

Prediction: Petroski by Decision

Jonathan Micallef -103 vs. Oban Elliott -119

Interesting matchup here at Welterweight. Jonathan Micallef comes in off an impressive debut, where he outstruck Kevin Jousset despite showing more grappling skills in his fights outside of the UFC. Oban Elliott looks to bounce back after an ugly loss to Seok Hyeon Ko, where he was controlled and struggled to get momentum throughout the fight.

I'll go with Elliott here as he is the better striker with more experience, and I'm not sure how Micallef's grappling will do in the UFC yet.

Prediction: Elliott by Decision

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Jamie Mullarkey -119 vs. Rolando Bedoya -103

Lightweights who are desperately looking to return to the win column square off in this one. Jamie Mullarkey is a kickboxer who maintains a good pace, although his durability has failed him repeatedly, with three of his last four fights ending in knockout losses. Rolando Bedoya is a durable fighter who remains aggressive throughout the fight, although he has often appeared to be a step behind his opponents in terms of technique, having lost his last three fights by decision.

I lean toward Bedoya here based on the durability difference alone, as I feel there is very little chance Mullarkey finishes Bedoya, leaving him with three rounds to finish Mullarkey, who has had trouble surviving in the past.

Prediction: Bedoya by 1st Round TKO

Colby Thicknesse +127 vs. Josias Musasa -156

Bantamweights looking to bounce back from debut losses are matched up in this one. Colby Thicknesse is a high-volume wrestler with an awkward striking style who comes in off a solid debut where he showed some promise despite losing to Aleksandre Topuria. Josias Musasa is a dangerous striker who has shown serious knockout power, although he was dropped and choked out by Carlos Vera as a large favorite in his last fight.

I'll take Musasa to bounce back here at a much more reasonable price than he was in his debut, as he is the more dangerous striker, and Thicknesse has some worrying defensive tendencies.

Prediction: Musasa by 1st Round TKO

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Luana Carolina +185 vs. Michelle Montague -238

A streaking veteran takes on an intriguing newcomer here at Bantamweight. Luana Carolina comes into this one on a three-fight winning streak. Michelle Montague debuts here with an undefeated record of all rear-naked choke finishes.

I'll go with Montague here, as she has a significant size advantage, given that she has fought at a higher weight, and Carolina is moving up for this one. This makes it difficult for me to see Carolina avoiding the grappling exchanges, as Montague will be much stronger when they clinch.

Prediction: Montague by 2nd Round Submission

Brando Pericic -233 vs. Elisha Ellison +185

Debuting Heavyweights with little experience clash here. Brando Pericic is a dangerous finisher with good clinch striking, coming from the City Kickboxing gym, who has ended all four of his pro wins in the first round, although he was submitted the only time he made it to the second round. Elisha Ellison has a similar record, with all five of his pro wins coming in round one, and the one time he saw round two, he was also submitted.

I'll pick Ellison here, as I feel he is the slightly cleaner striker, while also having a more technical ground game.

Prediction: Ellison by 1st Round TKO

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Loma Lookbonmee +195 vs. Alexia Thainara -250

Strawweights open the card here, looking to extend their winning streaks. Loma Lookbonmee is a solid and well-rounded fighter with good Muay Thai striking and grappling skills that she utilized to submit Elise Reed. Alexia Thainara is a dangerous submission grappler, coming off a debut win against Molly McCann, where she secured a choke in the first round.

I lean towards Lookbonmee as an underdog here, as she is the more well-rounded mixed martial artist who has proven herself in the UFC for much longer against tougher competition.

Prediction: Lookbonmee by Decision