UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 13, 2025|
3

The UFC keeps rolling with another card of action this weekend, headlined by former Welterweight champion Kamaru Usman taking on streaking contender Joaquin Buckley from the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. I went over that fight and every other matchup on the card to give my picks, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 6/12/2025

Kamaru Usman +205 vs. Joaquin Buckley -263

Welterweights on opposite trajectories cross paths here in our main event. Kamaru Usman returns after over a year and a half hiatus; now, at thirty-eight years old, he will look to prove he still possesses the dominant wrestling and technically sound boxing that helped him defend the title multiple times. Joaquin Buckley is an incredibly athletic and explosive fighter who has produced some incredible knockouts and is coming off a dominant finish of former title challenger Colby Covington.

The odds make it tempting to go with the underdog, but I'm picking Buckley as he has major advantages in terms of youth and athleticism that will be difficult for Usman to overcome.

Prediction: Buckley by Decision

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Rose Namajunas -250 vs. Miranda Maverick +195

A former champion faces off against a rising contender here at Flyweight. Rose Namajunas continues her run at Flyweight here, where she has proven still to be one of the best strikers in the division, although her grappling cost her last time out against Erin Blanchfield, who took over in the later rounds. Miranda Maverick is a skilled wrestler who comes in having won six of her last seven matches, proving that she can out-grapple anyone other than the best in the division, with her only losses coming to Jasmine Jasudavicius and Erin Blanchfield, along with a highly disputed decision against Maycee Barber.

I'll pick Namajunas here as she has a clear, striking advantage, and although she was outwrestled her last time out, we have seen the difference in the level of Blanchfield and Maverick when they fought, and Blanchfield was able to grapple her way to victory there as well.

Prediction: Namajunas by Decision

Edmen Shahbazyan -179 vs. Andre Petroski +145

Exciting finishers square off in what should be a fun one at Middleweight. Edmen Shahbazyan is a very talented striker with deadly knockout power early on, although his cardio has consistently let him down throughout his career. Andre Petroski is a strong grappler who comes in having won three straight, showcasing a strong top game and effective takedowns, along with significantly improved striking against Rodolfo Viera.

I'm taking Petroski as the underdog here, given his advantage in grappling and his cardio, which has led to much more success in fights that extend past the first round than Shahbazyan.

Prediction: Petroski by Decision

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Cody Garbrandt +165 vs. Raoni Barcelos -204

Fan favorite and former champion takes on a tricky veteran in his Bantamweight matchup. Cody Garbrandt is a dangerous knockout artist who once reached the top of the division, although his durability and fight IQ have prevented him from returning to that level. Raoni Barcelos is a skilled veteran who recently pulled off a massive upset against Payton Talbott, showcasing his strong grappling game, although his striking is solid as well, with a high volume and effective low kicks.

I like Garbrandt, as he has the power and speed to give Barcelos trouble on the feet, and he has much better wrestling credentials than Barcelos' last opponent in Talbott. With that, Cody Garbrandt MoneyLine is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Garbrandt by 1st Round KO (Best Bet)

Cody Brundage +520 vs. Mansur Abdul-Malik -833

Short-notice replacement steps in here to give us a banger at Middleweight. Cody Brundage is a wrestler with solid power in his hands and a tendency to brawl for better or worse with his questionable durability. Mansur Abdul-Malik is an undefeated fighter who comes in after getting knockout wins in his first two UFC appearances.

Abdul-Malik is likely to secure another knockout finish here, as he is more powerful, a better technical striker, and has proven to be much more durable.

Prediction: Abdul-Malik by 1st Round TKO

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Alonzo Menifield +480 vs. Oumar Sy -710

Powerful Light Heavyweights go head-to-head in this veteran-against-prospect clash. Alonzo Menifield is a strong and powerful veteran who has proven to be a tough test for anyone who is not a top-level fighter. Oumar Sy is an undefeated prospect who has demonstrated dangerous finishing skills in both his striking and grappling games, although he has yet to be tested against top-level competition.

I'll go with Sy to get the win, as I feel he is much more technical and well-rounded while also being the younger fighter who has absorbed less damage.

Prediction: Sy by Decision

Paul Craig +300 vs. Rodolfo Bellato -400

Light Heavyweights who were originally set to face off several weeks ago will now meet this weekend after a late cancellation. Paul Craig is a tricky grappler with dangerous submissions, although his striking and durability have held him back. Rodolfo Bellato is a dangerous striker who has overcome early adversity several times already in the UFC, although this has often put him in difficult positions against lower-level competition.

I'll pick Bellato, as I feel he can keep it on the feet, where he'll have a clear advantage. However, at these odds, after the cancellation, this is an easy pass from a betting perspective.

Prediction: Bellato by 2nd Round TKO

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Michael Chiesa -345 vs. Court McGee +270

Veteran wrestlers collide in this one at Welterweight. Michael Chiesa is a skilled grappler with good top pressure and a solid submission game; however, his striking has always appeared stiff, especially against Kevin Holland. Court McGee is a gritty wrestler with a heavy-pressure style that includes volume striking and grinding grappling exchanges.

I'll go with Chiesa here as he is the longer guy who has fought and beaten much better competition.

Prediction: Chiesa by Decision

Malcolm Wellmaker -2000 vs. Kris Moutinho +950

This late addition features a red-hot prospect fighting in his hometown against a familiar face at Bantamweight. Malcolm Wellmaker returns after his impressive debut, where he knocked out Cameron Saaiman in the first round, showing the dangerous striking he showed early in his career translates to this level. Kris Moutinho is back in the UFC after a five-fight win streak since his two-fight stint in the UFC, which was most notable for the beatdown he absorbed against Sean O'Malley on short notice.

Wellmaker should handle business here, as he is the more skilled and powerful striker who will have the home crowd behind him.

Prediction: Wellmaker by 1st Round KO

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Cody Durden +155 vs. Jose Ochoa -196

Flyweights are looking to move closer to the rankings as they square off here. Cody Durden is a wrestler who constantly pressures his opponents with a smothering attack, although his durability has proven questionable at times. Jose Ochoa is a big guy for the division with good striking.

I'm picking Ochoa in this one as I see his size and power being too much for Durden, leading to a finish.

Prediction: Ochoa by 2nd Round TKO

Ricky Simon -526 vs. Cameron Smotherman +380

A short-notice replacement comes in to save a fight here at Bantamweight. Ricky Simon is a strong wrestler who showed his hands are also dangerous in his last fight, where he scored a highlight knockout over Javid Basharat. Cameron Smotherman comes in here on a week's notice, which he has done before in his debut win over Jake Hadley, where he showed his high-pace striking attack.

Simon should have a big advantage in the wrestling here, as we have seen Smotherman controlled for long stretches before by lesser competition.

Prediction: Simon by Decision

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Phil Rowe +110 vs. Ange Loosa -135

Two experienced Welterweights looking to get back in the win column face off in this prelim matchup. Phil Rowe is a tall and long fighter for the division with solid striking and decent submissions, although he has allowed guys like Jake Matthews to overwhelm him with volume. Ange Loosa is a stocky boxer who is very durable and has a decent wrestling attack, although he did gas out badly against Rhys McKee.

I lean towards Rowe here as I feel he will be able to use his reach advantage to keep Loosa at range and pick him apart.

Prediction: Rowe by Decision

Jamey-Lyn Horth -588 vs. Vanessa Demopoulos +400

Flyweights open the card. Jamey-Lyn Horth is a strong and well-rounded fighter who effectively pressures her opponents. Vanessa Demopoulos is a fast-paced grappler with decent submission skills, although she struggles when outmatched on the ground.

I'm taking Horth here as she is much larger and will have the advantage anywhere the fights goes.

Prediction: Horth by Decision