UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 05, 2024|

The UFC is in Louisville, Kentucky, at the KFC YUM Center this weekend! headlined by Middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier and Nassourdine Imavov going head to head. I went over that matchup and every other fight on the card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 6/5/2024

Jared Cannonier +103 vs. Nassourdine Imavov -125

Top-ranked Middleweights clash in this high-stakes main event. Jared Cannonier returns from a year away due to a torn MCL. He is a high-volume power puncher with great cardio, although he is now forty years old and has been rocked several times against guys not known for punching power, like Derek Brunson and Marvin Vettori. Nassordine Imavov is a very slick kickboxer coming off an impressive five-round domination against Roman Dolidze earlier this year, during which he showed his dangerous power and gained more experience going the distance.

I've got the younger guy on his way up in Imavov, and I believe he will find a finish in this one as well, with Cannonier being as old as he is and coming off a serious injury.

Pick: Imavov O/U: Under 4.5 +119


Dominick Reyes +190 vs. Dustin Jacoby -238

A former title challenger returns here in a must-win fight at Light Heavyweight. Dominick Reyes is looking to regain form here, having brutally lost his last three fights, all ending by knockout. Over his career, he has proven to be a high-level and dangerous striker with the power to finish early and keep a solid pace. Dustin Jacoby is a solid veteran with a kickboxing style who has been on the wrong end of three of his last four fights, having shown a decline in durability by being dropped several times over those matchups.

I'm taking Reyes as the underdog here as I don't believe Jacoby is as dangerous as the past opponents who were able to finish him. If he can return to anything close to what he was when he fought Jon Jones, I see Reyes dominating to a stoppage win.

Pick: Reyes O/U: Under 2.5 -147

Raul Rosas Jr. -244 vs. Ricky Turcios +190

Bantamweights will finally meet after a fight day cancellation pushed this matchup back. Raul Rosas Jr. made headlines for breaking into the UFC at a young age, and he has shown why with his dangerous finishing ability early in fights, although when extended, there are still questions, as was shown when he faced Christian Rodriguez. Ricky Turcios returns here after over a year off; he made it to the UFC by winning the Ultimate Fighter, although he has struggled to impress in two fights with the promotion showing a very raw skillset.

I see Rosas Jr. having a significant advantage on the ground in this matchup, and I'll pick him to use that advantage to either find an early finish or control Turcios to a clear decision win.

Pick: Rosas Jr. O/U: Over 2.5 -149


Brunno Ferreira -270 vs. Dustin Stoltzfus +215

Middleweight finishers coming off impressive victories match up in this one. Brunno Ferreira is a powerhouse with dangerous punches that helped him pull off the upset over Gregory Rodrigues, though his durability is a concern as well, having been knocked out early by Nursulton Ruziboev. Dustin Stoltzfus is a solid submission grappler coming off a good performance against Punahele Soriano, in which he was very measured before finding the finish in the second round.

Ferreira is likely to get a finish early in this one, as he can handle the grappling and will dominate the striking with little fear of the power coming back his way.

Pick: Ferreira O/U: Under 1.5 -137

Julian Marquez -137 vs. Zach Reese +111

Middleweights who look for the finish from the first bell meet in this must-see matchup. Julian Marquez is a brawler with good hands and a solid submission game that he has used to finish three UFC opponents as well; he comes in off two knockout losses, although they were against rather tough competition in Marc-Andre Barriault and Gregory Rodrigues. Zach Reese is a big and athletic guy with solid power and submission skills, although he lacks much experience against top competition and past the first round, which causes big concerns.

I've got Marquez here as I see him being able to handle any early threat that Reese may have to take over and earn a finish in the later rounds.

Pick: Marquez O/U: Under 1.5 -159


Punahele Soriano +155 vs. Miguel Baeza -196

Welterweight knockout artists collide here to open the main card. Punahele Soriano moves down in weight here after struggling his last few at Middleweight; he is a powerful striker, although he is very hittable and has yet to show much ability to adapt during fights despite having a strong coach behind him in Eric Nicksick. Miguel Baeza returns from a long layoff here after losing his last three, with the most recent two being knockouts; he has well-rounded finishing skills, although his defense has proven to be an issue as he struggles to move his head or deal with leg kicks.

At this price, I lean toward Soriano as he still has big power despite his recent struggles, which is a massive factor with both men having durability issues.

Pick: Soriano O/U: Over 1.5 -119

Thiago Moises +103 vs. Ludovit Klein -127

Battle-tested Lightweights looking to push into the rankings, go at it here. Thiago Moises is a tough veteran with a good ground game as his base, although he has shown solid striking using the leg kick to control his last fight against Mitch Ramirez. Ludovit Klein is a fast striker who has made clear improvements since moving up to Lightweight, showing that his wrestling is much better, having used it to earn big wins over Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes.

I've got Klein here. He will have a massive speed advantage that will help him dominate the striking, and he has shown clear improvement in his grappling, which will help him defend Moises's attack.

Pick: Klein O/U: Under 2.5 +109


Charles Radtke +185 vs. Carlos Prates -233

Welterweights to keep an eye on square off in this fantastic prelim matchup. Charles Radtke is a gritty fighter with solid wrestling and an improving standup that he used to get the upset over Gilbert Urbina in his last fight, knocking him out in round one with a powerful left hook. Carlos Prates is a very long kickboxer coming off an impressive debut knockout over Trevin Giles, although his grappling is still untested at this level of competition.

I'll pick Prates to find a knockout finish, but I have a hard time backing him at this price, given the many questions remaining.

Pick: Prates O/U: Over 1.5 -152

Brad Katona -625 vs. Jesse Butler +440

Bantamweights both looking to get things on track go head to head here. Brad Katona is a very well-rounded and tough fighter who has shown solid boxing and a great wrestling game that helped him become the first to win The Ultimate Fighter twice. Jesse Butler looks to put his short-notice debut loss to Jim Miller behind him here; he is a good grappler who can finish fights on the ground, having eight submissions on his record.

This price is a lot, but I have to pick Katona, as he has proven he can compete at this level, and Butler, who has been off for a year, moving down two weight classes from his debut.

Pick: Katona O/U: Under 2.5 +190


Andrea Lee -152 vs. Montana De La Rosa +123

Flyweights, each looking to end lengthy losing streaks, will meet in this rematch. Andrea Lee has consistently faced very high-level competition over her career, showing a solid ground game when she has the physicality advantage, although stronger wrestlers have been able to control her. Montana De La Rosa will look for redemption after losing the first matchup five years ago, and she will likely need to get her grappling going to do so, with most of her wins having come from her submission game.

I'll go with Lee to get the job done again. She has kept some of her fights close with highly ranked women and has proven tough to submit on the ground, where most of De La Rosa's wins have come from.

Pick: Lee O/U: Over 2.5 -385

Daniel Marcos -102 vs. John Castaneda -119

Bantamweights will face off here in a clash of styles with the classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Daniel Marcos is a kickboxer with solid power, although he can be low-volume at times, which showed up as a problem against Davey Grant in a fight in which he was lucky to get the decision. John Castaneda is a high-paced grappler with good cardio that he uses to pressure his opponents, which has helped him secure several late finishes.

I lean towards Castaneda here as he is the more active fighter with the grappling upside.

Pick: Castaneda O/U: Over 2.5 -250


Eduarda Moura -169 vs. Denise Gomes +137

Strawweight finishers square off here early on the card. Eduarda Moura has shown a dominant ground game so far, helping her collect an undefeated record with ten wins, including nine inside the distance, most coming via her strong ground and pound or rear-naked-choke. Denise Gomes is a powerful puncher who proved she is live against anyone in her fast upset win over Yazmin Jauregui, although she has been taken down and controlled or out volumed in the striking in fights like the Angela Hill and Loma Lookboonmee losses.

I'm picking Moura to get her ground game going and take a dominant decision here.

Pick: Moura O/U: Over 2.5 -135

Cody Stamann +215 vs. Taylor Lapilus -278

Bantamweight veterans meet in a clash of styles. Cody Stamann is a tough wrestler who has competed with some of the best in the division, showing solid boxing to go with his high-pressure grappling attack. Taylor Lapilus is a kickboxer with good kicks at range, although he has been controlled on the ground before by less experienced opponents.

At this price, I'm taking Stamann as I see this coming down to a close decision, and when that is the case, I would much rather have the underdog with the grappling upside.

Pick: Stamann O/U: Over 2.5 -385


Puja Tomar +235 vs. Rayanne Amanda -303

Strawweights, each looking for their first UFC win battle, are here to open the card. Puja Tomar makes her debut here, coming in with a very high finish rate that includes finishing her last three opponents; however, she has suffered several submission losses in her young career, which is cause for concern. Rayanne Amanda enters this off a close split decision loss in her first UFC bout, although before that, she had won three straight to earn her spot in the promotion, having shown a solid ground game with a good submission attack, including an armbar that has finished seven of her pro wins.

I'll pick Amanda to get a submission finish here as I see her as a much better grappler, eventually forcing a mistake from Tomar.

Pick: Amanda O/U: Under 2.5 +143

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Nassourdine Imavov -125

Dominick Reyes +187

Julian Marquez -110

Ludovit Klein -125

Cody Stamann +210

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