UFC Mexico City Odds Breakdown

UFC Mexico City Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
February 22, 2024|

The UFC is back on the road this week, heading to Mexico City, Mexico, headlined by two five-round fights featuring hometown stars as Brandon Moreno -300 takes on Brandon Royval +250 at Flyweight and Yair Rodriguez -151 rematches Brian Ortega +131 at Featherweight. I went over every matchup on this stacked card and gave my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 2/22/2024 5:15 PM EST

Brandon Moreno -300 vs. Brandon Royval +250

Flyweights, each coming off a loss for the championship, will rematch here with another title opportunity in mind. Brandon Moreno has grown in the UFC into a well-rounded machine with clean boxing and a solid wrestling game; he is also extremely durable, having never been finished as a pro. Brandon Royval takes this matchup on short notice here as a high-pace striker who uses his length very well, although his wrestling defense has been a problem lately.

I like Moreno here as he will have much better wrestling and is very difficult to finish, which limits Royval's path to victory.

Pick: Moreno O/U: Over 3.5 -145


Yair Rodriguez -151 vs. Brian Ortega +131

These Featherweights are matched up again after Ortega's shoulder injury ended the first clash early. Yair Rodriguez will look to bounce back here after his tough loss to Alexander Volkanovski for the title, but he remains a wild and dangerous striker capable of fighting at an insane pace. Brian Ortega has been known as one of the best submission artists in the sport, and he developed a striking attack against the Korean Zombie, although he remains very hittable and has been off for an extended period.

I've got Rodriguez to take this as early as their last fight he was landing a lot, and I don't believe Ortega has the wrestling to get and hold him down like he will need to if he wants to win.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 2.5 -155

Daniel Zellhuber -270 vs. Francisco Prado +230

Very young Lightweights will go head to head here in this prospect vs. prospect clash. Daniel Zellhuber is a tall striker with all the physical tools and a solid submission game; his wrestling is relatively untested, but he is very young and improving rapidly. Francisco Prado is a tough finisher with twelve wins, all coming inside the distance, including a knockout over Ottman Azaitar his last time out.

I'll pick Zellhuber here as I believe he will use his length to keep his distance and avoid the big power of Prado to take a decision to win. Both guys are rather durable here, so the over is also a solid bet.

Pick: Zellhuber O/U: Over 2.5 -130


Raul Rosas Jr. -220 vs. Ricky Turcios +185

Bantamweights representing two of the UFC pipeline programs square off here. Raul Rosas Jr. has made many headlines for being in the UFC from a young age after coming in off Dana White's Contender Series and showing high-level grappling along with the knockout power he displayed in his last UFC fight against Terrance Mitchell. Ricky Turcios has struggled since getting to the UFC by winning his season of The Ultimate Fighter. He has decent striking but can struggle to land shots, and his wrestling defense is not very strong.

I'll take Rosas Jr. here, as he should be able to use his grappling edge to control Turcios, but the cardio is a serious concern.

Pick: Rosas Jr. O/U: Over 2.5 -160

Yazmin Jauregui -600 vs. Sam Hughes +425

A top Strawweight prospect looks to bounce back from her first career loss here on home soil. Yazmin Jauregui will look to rebound from her shocking upset loss to Denise Gomes; entering that matchup, she was unbeaten and seen as a future title threat due to her ability to maintain a high pace and finish fights. Sam Hughes is a very gritty wrestler who can outlast opponents and do damage from the top position, the problem is when she doesn't have a clear advantage on the ground, she struggles tremendously.

Jauregui should dominate here. I see her setting a high pace early and getting the stoppage in rounds two or three.

Pick: Jauregui O/U: Under 2.5 +160


Manuel Torres -191 vs. Chris Duncan +166

Lightweight power punchers will open the main card. Manuel Torres is a knockout puncher with very fast hands, although his cardio may be an issue with him having shown in fights before. Chris Duncan is a solid fighter all around, having shown good punching power and a decent ground game; his concern is his durability, as he doesn't react well to punches and has been pushed nearly unconscious against several decent strikers.

The line has shifted a lot here towards Torres, and now I feel that if you missed that line like I did, it would become a dog-or-pass situation so I'll pick Duncan.

Pick: Duncan O/U: Over 1.5 +165

Cristian Quinonez +170 vs. Raoni Barcelos -195

Bantamweights looking to get back on the winning track matchup here. Cristian Quinonez is a powerful striker, but his ground game is far behind, which showed early in his last fight, where he was submitted in a very avoidable fashion. Raoni Barcelos was once very highly thought of among many but has never quite broken through and is now reaching a later stage of his career; he's an interesting case; his skills have looked top tier with clean striking and the ability to mix in a solid ground game, but he has also lost two straight including one first-round knockout raising some questions about his future.

I've got Barcelos here as I believe he has every advantage in this spot and will eventually find an opportunity to get a submission win.

Pick: Barcelos O/U: Under 2.5 -150


Jesus Aguilar +105 vs. Mateus Mendonca -125

Two talented submission artists go head to head here at Flyweight. Jesus Aguilar comes in off a very quick knockout over Shannon Ross, but most of his wins come via his fantastic guillotine choke, which he also nearly got against Tatsuro Taira. Mateus Mendonca comes in out of the famed Chute Boxe gym, and he has the classic style of aggression and finishing; this can come at a price, as in his last fight, he sold out for a leg lock, which allowed his opponent to land enough damaging strikes, to finish the fight.

I'm going Mendonca here as if we remove each of their last fights from the equation I believe he would be a much larger favorite here, making me feel this line has a lot of recency bias.

Pick: Mendonca O/U: Under 2.5 -150

Edgar Chairez -550 vs. Daniel Lacerda +400

Flyweights who have been booked and even entered the cage against each other once before will look to finally settle things here. Edgar Chairez is a quick finisher with seven wins coming in the first round; he has also proven tough to finish himself, surviving the full three rounds with the dangerous Tatsuro Taira. Daniel Lacerda has had the most exciting four-fight losing streak in UFC history with a crazy run of near finishes, although his cardio has always failed him, as he fell short all four times.

At this price, I'm going with Lacerda as he has proven that he is dangerous, and Chairez has allowed himself to get caught in tough positions before. However, if this goes past the first round, this price then begins to make sense, as Chairez will likely take over.

Pick: Lacerda O/U: Under 1.5 -210


Claudio Pulles +168 vs. Fares Ziam -193

Young Lightweights will showcase the division's depth in this interesting matchup. Claudio Pulles is known for his dangerous submission, particularly his leg attacks, which have earned him three wins in the UFC, although his striking and offensive wrestling leaves much to be desired. Fares Ziam enters this one having won four of his last five, with clear improvements being made to his ground game in particular.

I'll go with Ziam here, as Pulles has proven a bit too one-dimensional for my liking, and Ziam is getting better.

Pick: Ziam O/U: Over 2.5 -135

Luis Rodriguez -120 vs. Denys Bondar +100

It is one of many Flyweight bouts on the card here, featuring two men looking for their first UFC win. Luis Rodriguez makes his debut here in his home country; he is a durable finisher, having finished eleven opponents and never being finished himself. Denys Bondar has had a rough UFC run, including taking a lot of damage at the end of his last fight having been knocked out badly.

I've got Rodriguez in this one, as I like some things I've seen from him, and I am not sure Bondar is at the UFC level.

Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Under 2.5 +130


Victor Altamirano +245 vs. Felipe dos Santos -290

Many are excited to see these Flyweights back in the octagon for this one. Victor Altamirano is a unique style striker with a decent grappling attack as well; he hasn't shown much finishing ability at this level, but he did get a first-round win over Daniel Lacerda. Felipe dos Santos is one of several Chute Boxe fighters on the card, and he showed that style in his short-notice debut against highly ranked Manel Kape, where he gave him a very tough fight, eventually losing a decision.

It's tough to rate dos Santos this highly after one fight that he ended up losing, and for that reason, I have to go Altamirano here.

Pick: Altamirano O/U: Over 2.5 -245

Muhammad Naimov -600 vs. Erik Silva +425

Featherweights start off the card. Muhammad Naimov looks to continue his strong UFC run after a good showing against Nathaniel Wood in his Featherweight debut to move to two wins in the promotion; he has a well-rounded skillset with power in his hands and solid grappling. Erik Silva returns after over a year off following his debut, where he lost to TJ Brown; he is now thirty-six and will likely look to secure an early submission, as that is how he has earned most of his victories.

I'll pick Naimov here as he is solid all around, and I'm just not sure Silva can take this one off his time away.

Pick: Naimov O/U: Under 2.5 -160


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Yari Rodriguez

Raoni Barcelos

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