The UFC is back in the Apex this weekend, headlined by Featherweight finishers Edson Barboza +113 and Lerone Murphy -133. I went over every fight on the card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.
Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 9:00 AM 5/16/2024
A tough test awaits an undefeated prospect in our main event at Featherweight. Edson Barboza is an explosive kickboxer coming off a tremendous comeback victory over Sodiq Yusuff, which proved he still has some left in the tank at thirty-eight years old. Lerone Murphy enters this undefeated with a well-rounded skillset that includes knockout power, as he showed against Makwan Amirkhani, and a solid wrestling game he has used on multiple occasions.
I've got Murphy here. I believe he is a good enough striker to keep it close and eventually take this fight to the ground and dominate.
Pick: Murphy O/U: Under 3.5 +135
Solid clash of Welterweights on win streaks here in the co-main event. Khaos Williams is a powerful striker with a strong build and decent volume, although his grappling has yet to be tested much in the UFC. Carlston Harris is a long grappler with improving striking; his only loss in the UFC comes against Shavkat Rakhmonov, with him being 4-1 in the promotion, including three finishes.
I'll pick Harris here as I feel he will be able to get this fight to the ground and control Williams enough to negate the striking advantage on the other side,
Pick: Harris O/U: Under 2.5 -175
Welterweight grapplers will go head to head in this fun matchup. Ramiz Brahimaj is a talented submission artist with an excellent choke game that has helped him finish all ten of his professional wins by submission. Themba Gorimbo is a long and fast-paced fighter with decent striking that he used to knockout Pete Rodriguez in the first minute of his last appearance, although he has struggled against other grapplers like AJ Fletcher, who wore him down and secured a choke.
I like Brahimaj to find a submission here. He is very good at capitalizing on his opponents' mistakes on the mat, and I see Gorimbo eventually giving him an opportunity to secure a choke.
Pick: Brahimaj O/U: Under 1.5 +125
Strikers with flashy styles will face off in this Bantamweight clash. Adrian Yanez is a very skilled boxer, coming off back-to-back stoppage losses, although those were large steps up in competition compared to previous opponents. Vinicius Salvador has an awkward striking style, throwing many unorthodox kicks; he is also moving up in weight here after missing in his last bout at Flyweight, which was a loss to CJ Vergara.
I see Yanez dominating this matchup. He will have a massive advantage in boxing, and I don't believe Salvador can do enough damage to stop his forward pressure.
Pick: Yanez O/U: Over 1.5 -165
Strawweights open the main card as a fan favorite takes on an up-and-comer. Angela Hill is a tough veteran who has fought many top women in the division, showing a high-volume striking attack and good grappling defense. Luana Pinheiro is a solid grappler with improving striking, although her cardio failed when she was forced to fight at a high pace against Amanda Ribas.
I lean towards Hill to win a decision with higher output.
Pick: Hill O/U: Over 2.5 -450
Lightweight strikers matchup here, each looking to bounce back from rough debuts. Tom Nolan is a tall and powerful guy, although his striking defense leaves much to be desired, as we saw against Nikolas Motta, who finished him in just over a minute in his UFC debut. Victor Martinez returns after over a year off since his debut loss, where Jordan Leavitt, traditionally a grappler, knocked him out in the first round.
My pick is Nolan here, as he is the more dangerous threat, but I can't trust either of these men with my money at this stage in their careers.
Pick: Nolan O/U: Under 1.5 -150
Light Heavyweights, each making their UFC debut, face off in this one. Oumar Sy debuts here as a well-rounded finisher with six first-round stoppages in his nine wins, with four knockouts and two submissions, having also gone the distance in two of his wins, showing cardio is not an issue. Tuco Tokkos steps in on short notice, having won three straight, with two coming inside the first round, although many of his finishes come against lower-level competition.
I'm picking Sy here because I see him as the more dangerous fighter. I believe he can get another first-round stoppage against his short-notice opponent.
Pick: Sy O/U: Under 1.5 -154
Bantamweights who are coming off split decision losses and look to return to the win column here. Tamires Vidal returns for her third UFC appearance here; she is a powerful striker who throws big shots but often fails to put much together in combination. Melissa Gatto looks to bounce back here after a couple of tough losses against solid competition; she has dangerous striking that she used to finish Sijara Eubanks and a good submission game, as well as holding a kimura win over Karol Rosa.
I'll take Gatto here, and I even believe she will get a finish here. She has proven to have dangerous power and good submissions.
Pick: Gatto O/U: Under 2.5 +115
Middleweight finishers looking to get back on track face off here. Abus Magomedov is a dangerous and powerful striker, although his cardio has been a serious issue, with him gassing out badly against Sean Strickland and Caio Borralho. Warlley Alves is a tough veteran with power in his hands and a very strong guillotine that he used to beat Colby Covington back in the day.
I'll pick Magomedov to get an early finish, although, at this price, I can't put my money on him, as his cardio has always been a concern.
Pick: Magomedov O/U: Under 1.5 -135
Strawweights who are looking to get things on track and make a big statement square off here. Piera Rodriguez has a good striking game with decent power in her hands and the ability to mix in the wrestling. Ariane Carnelossi is very strong for the weight class, having big power and explosive ability on the ground, although her wrestling technique has not been the best, with Lupita Godinez repeatedly taking her down in that matchup.
I'll pick Rodriguez here, as she will have a massive advantage in wrestling and cardio.
Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 2.5 -250
Strikers will match up in this fun clash at Bantamweight. Alateng Heili is a powerful counter-striker with a big right hand, although he is relatively low-volume in most fights. Kleydson Rodrigues is a solid kickboxer who has had a rough run in the UFC thus far, although it has not been against good matchups; he is now up a weight class where he is much better suited.
I've got Rodrigues here as I see him as the higher-volume and more dangerous striker, giving him the finishing edge or if it goes to the scorecards.
Pick: Rodrigues O/U: Over 2.5 -200
Strawweights open the card, looking to make a statement. Emily Ducote is a well-rounded fighter with good boxing and wrestling, although she doesn't push a very high pace. Vanessa Demopoulos is a solid grappler who is very active on the ground, although her wrestling has been a problem as she spends a lot of time on her back.
I've got Ducote here. She is better than Demopoulos everywhere and will take home a clear decision win.
Pick: Ducote O/U: Over 2.5 -470
Lerone Murphy -150
Carlston Harris +112
Ramiz Brahimaj +115
Kleydson Rodrigues -150
Adrian Yanez + Emily Ducote -155