Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 6/12/2023 7:00 AM EST

Marvin Vettori -123 vs. Jared Cannonier -103

The middleweight main event features two of the division’s most consistent contenders looking to earn another shot at gold. Marvin Vettori is a pressure boxer with decent wrestling and one of the best chins in all of MMA, having never been finished. Jared Cannonier is a veteran who has performed his best in the later stages of his career with powerful striking and a good defensive game.

The price on this feels right as it will be very close between Vettori’s volume and Cannonier’s power, so I’ll lean Vettori on the ML, but I am much more interested in betting the over as Vettori is historically very durable with little finishing ability and Cannonier has also gone to a decision more often than not of late.

Pick: Vettori O/U: Over 4.5 -200

Arman Tsarukyan -1250 vs. Joaquim Silva +620

An eye-catching price tag on this Lightweight bout featuring one of the division’s best talents. Arman Tsarukyan has impressed many with his dominant grappling skills and high-pressure standup game. Joaquim Silva steps up to this challenge, and were he facing an opponent more on his level, it would be easier to praise him as he has solid power and gets into very fun fights, but he has lost to opponents who are nowhere near the caliber of Tsarukyan.

It is easy to pick Tsarukyan here, but I see no value on the ML. If you are looking to bet on this fight, I would go with Tsarukyan by TKO/KO prop or the finish as a parlay piece.

Pick: Tsarukyan O/U: Under 1.5 -154

Christian Leroy Duncan -156 vs. Armen Petrosyan +122

Exciting striking match here at Middleweight. Christian Leroy Duncan is a very athletic striker who moves very well for his size and throws big strikes, he is somewhat untested, especially in the grappling department. Armen Petrosyan is a solid kickboxer who throws a lot of kicks and has shown that he can keep a good pace for three rounds.

I was very tempted to take a shot on Petrosyan by decision here, but I don’t want my money against Leroy Duncan here as he has a very high ceiling and a big reach advantage in this matchup where his grappling is likely an advantage, if anything.

Pick: Duncan O/U: Over 2.5 -135

Pat Sabatini -196 vs. Lucas Almeida +155

An intriguing matchup between Featherweights on the rise. Pat Sabatini has shown a smothering grappling game, although he does not respond well to being hit, which has shown itself against some lesser hitters. Lucas Almeida is a powerful kickboxer with a nasty clinch game, although his grappling is still a question mark at this level as he has not shown the ability to wrestle well, even against lower-level opposition.

I predict that Almeida will get the knockout here, as although we don’t know if his grappling will hold up, we do know he hits very hard and is likely to have several opportunities to crack Sabatini and end the fight.

Pick: Almeida O/U: Under 2.5 -133

Nikolas Motta +145 vs. Manuel Torres -189

A Lightweight striking battle here that may not last very long. Nikolas Motta is a fun striker with real power and good cardio, although his durability is a concern, with him having been knocked out several times. Manuel Torres is a quick finisher with speedy hands, although he has yet to finish outside of the first round, demonstrating his finishing ability is limited as the fight goes on.

I’ll pick Torres here as I think his power is likely to result in an early finish, but there is no value in playing him straight up, look for props if you like this side.

Pick: Torres O/U: Under 1.5 -156

Muslim Salikhov -196 vs. Nicolas Dalby +150

An intriguing clash between experienced Welterweights to open the main card. Muslim Salikhov is a flashy striker, although as he has aged, his speed has diminished, and he was never the highest of volume fighters. Nicolas Dalby has a high volume, unique, striking style that can give opponents trouble, and he also has great durability, having only been finished once in a bout that was overturned due to his opponent testing positive for illegal substances.

I’ll lean toward Dalby here as I think he will be landing more often and has the grappling upside in a fight that I expect to go the distance.

Pick: Dalby O/U: Over 2.5 -175

Raoni Barcelos -238 vs. Miles Johns +180

Veteran Bantamweights looking to get things on track collide here. Raoni Barcelos has been considered a sleeper by many for some time now, although his age is starting to become a concern, aside from that, he is high volume on the feet and has high-level grappling to get with that. Miles Johns has had some close fights in the UFC where he relies on his power rather than pace, which is concerning.

I think this is a good matchup for Barcelos, and he should be the one landing at a much higher pace which makes me feel comfortable combining him with Costa in the next fight to bring their prices down.

Pick: Barcelos O/U: Under 2.5 +125

Jimmy Flick +200 vs. Alessandro Costa -270

One of many Flyweight fights on the card here. Jimmy Flick is a solid submission artist, although he lacks development in other parts of his game. Alessandro Costa impressed many with a solid debut over highly touted Amir Albazi; despite the loss, he has good hands and is a BJJ black belt to go with that.

I’ll take Costa here as one of my more confident picks on the card as I like what I have seen from him, and I think his skillset matches up nicely for him to get the finish here.

Pick: Costa O/U: Under 2.5 -208

Kyung Ho Kang +130 vs. Cristian Quinonez -167

High-pace action is expected here in this Bantamweight matchup. Kyung Ho Kang is a veteran of the sport known for his good durability and striking fundamentals. Cristian Quinonez is a high-volume striker with good power in all his shots, including his body kicks, which he throws very well.

I like Kyung Ho Kang here as he has the experience edge and can use his grappling if he needs to separate himself and win rounds.

Pick: Kang O/U: Over 2.5 -200

Carlos Hernandez +105 vs. Denys Bondar -133

Fun Flyweight matchup here between high pace fighters looking to bounce back from losses. Carlos Hernandez is a solid wrestler, and I don't hold his loss against Allan Nascimento against him, as that was simply a mismatch. Denys Bondar returns from a long layoff here with many questions to answer after losing his UFC debut with an arm injury more than a year ago against Malcolm Gordon.

I’ll lean with Bondar here, but I am not confident in betting on him as I have no idea what kind of form he is in, and his debut gave some red flags.

Pick: Bondar O/U: Under 2.5 +145

Felipe Burns +134 vs. Zhalgas Zhumagulov -172

A newcomer and veteran collide here at Flyweight. Felipe Burns comes in with plenty of experience across reputable organizations, having displayed an aggressive submission game. Zhalgas Zhumagulov has become known for fighting close, and despite his three-fight skid, he still has a decent striking game and can keep a consistent pace over three rounds.

I’m picking Zhumagulov here, but with his style and the fact he is getting up there in age, I am not interested in betting this price.

Pick: Zhumagulov O/U: Over 2.5 -222

Tereza Bleda -244 vs. Gabriella Fernandes +185

Two Flyweights meet here, looking to get back on track after tough debuts. Tereza Bleda has shown a solid grappling game, although she slows when forced to work at a high pace. Gabriella Fernandes is a powerful striker, although her grappling defense is bad, as she was taken down and controlled her entire debut.

I will pick Bleda as she should have a considerable edge in the grappling, although this price is far too much to consider.

Pick: Bleda O/U: Under 2.5 +136

Ronnie Lawrence -192 vs. Dan Argueta +149

Bantamweight grapplers clash in this matchup. Ronnie Lawrence returns off a tough showing against Saidyokub Kakhramonov his last time out, where he was beaten at his own game of chain wrestling and cardio, although I still have high hopes for him based on what he has shown prior. Dan Argueta returns to Bantamweight here after competing at Featherweight several times to start his career; many remember him for his valiant effort against Damon Jackson, where he displayed his impressive cardio but also demonstrated several holes in his game.

I really like Lawrence here, as many are underestimating him based on a tough last showing, which has provided a value opportunity here.

Pick: Lawrence O/U: Over 2.5 -263

Modestas Bukauskas -204 vs. Zac Pauga +155

Light Heavyweights looking to take the next step in the division, met to open the card. Modestas Bukauskas impressively returned to the UFC, piecing up the highly touted Tyson Pedro on short notice showing his crafty striking. Zac Pauga returns from a successful debut in the division, where he nullified the attack of Jordan Wright to get a decision win, although he has yet to show much finishing ability.

At the current price, I lean with Pauga as he has the grappling edge and can keep it competitive striking, making me think he can edge out a decision.

Pick: Pauga O/U: Over 2.5 -182

DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Ronnie Lawrence

Marvin Vettori vs. Jared Cannonier Over 4.5 Rounds