This weekend the UFC gives us a Strawweight headliner from the Apex in Las Vegas, Nevada, featuring Marina Rodriguez -227 coming off her win at UFC 272, and Amanda Lemos +175 off her finish of Michelle Waterson. This card also showcases some outstanding grapplers as Tagir Ulanbekov -233 takes on Nate Maness +180 and Darrick Minner +170 battles Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -217.
All Odds Provided by Stake.com Accurate as of 8:00 AM EST 11/03/2022
This main event should provide some good high-pace action. Marina Rodriguez has earned another main event with her clean boxing skills and developing ground defense that has earned her impressive wins over Mackenzie Dern and Xianon Yan. Amanda Lemos is one of the most powerful punchers in the division, and she finished her last fight with a nasty submission.
I like Rodriguez, but I love the fight to go the distance, as all but one of every women's main events this year have gone to the judge's scorecards. We are getting a reasonable price here especially considering Rodriguez has never been finished.
Pick: Rodriguez O/U: Over 4.5 -104
A Welterweight banger here between two men looking to move up the rankings. Neil Magny has hung around with plenty of names at the top of the division using his strong clinch game and good range control. Daniel Rodriguez makes a quick turnaround from his win over Li Jingliang, and he will once again look to show off his crisp and powerful boxing skills.
I'll lean Magny, but this is a tough fight to predict as Magny was hurt in his last fight, and Rodriguez has a lot of power and the youth factor.
Pick: Magny O/U: Over 2.5 -233
The classic Heavyweight clash here on the main card. Josh Parisian has traded wins and losses in his UFC run so far and has shown solid finishing ability although flawed defense. Chase Sherman came back into the UFC with a gritty stoppage win in the third round; before that, he had done little to inspire confidence in betting him at a favorite price.
I don't recommend betting on fights like these, as there is rarely any value in betting on a coin flip fight when the books don't give out even odds.
Pick: Sherman O/U: Over 2.5 +130
A good scrap at Flyweight here that will test coach Khabib Nurmagomedov yet again. Tagir Ulanbekov suffered a setback in his impressive climb his last time out, although he has looked dominant when facing opponents who lack an excellent counter-wrestling game. Nate Maness is tough and can give opponents problems with his offense, although he has struggled when put on his back.
I've got Ulanbekov all day here as this is a perfect matchup for him, and the market is slightly down on him because of his last fight.
The first Stawweight matchup on the card here. Jinh Yu Frey is a veteran who has found ways to stay in fights, although she has struggled in the grappling department. Polyana Viana is a high-level grappler with decent striking, even holding a knockout win over Amanda Ribas.
I played Viana early at DougLasVegasBets.net, so those who get my picks there will have gotten a better price, although I still believe she is worth being this size a favorite.
Pick: Viana O/U: Over 2.5 -238
This fight sees two Bantamweights looking to bounce back from tough losses. Johnny Munoz Jr got caught his last time out, although, in fights where he has been able to get going, he has proven to be an active and dangerous grappler. Liudvik Sholinian has been off for over a year since taking on Jack Shore in a tough matchup where the stronger man out-grappled him.
I'll take Munoz Jr here as this fight should be grappling-heavy where he has the advantage.
Pick: Munoz Jr O/U: Over 2.5 -196
A fun one at Flyweight here to tune in for early on the card. Jake Hadley was upset in his UFC debut when many expected him to dominate; he was the one who struggled to find any success with his highly touted grappling attack. Carlos Candelario comes in off a loss in his debut, although it was against Tatsuro Taira, who has proven tough competition.
I like Hadley here, but after a tough debut, I can't bet on him at this price until I see a lot more.
Pick: Hadley O/U: Over 2.5 -233
To start the card, we get a Bantamweight matchup. Ramona Pascual lost a close fight in her last matchup where she could not effectively implement her grappling, which cost her. Tamires Vidal enters the UFC with a good record and a high finishing upside.
I've got Pascual here, as although her UFC run has not inspired much confidence, she has the experience at this level that Vidal still needs to gain.
Pick: Pascual O/U: Over 2.5 -233
Tagir Ulanbekov -233
Mario Bautista -312
Polyana Viana -143
Marina Rodriguez vs. Amanda Lemos Fight Goes The Distance -104