Sanjay Thakur

We analyzed 570,786 picks to see if our picks game is a game of skill. We weren't surprised by the results, but you might be. We frequently see the same friends at the top of the Global Leaderboard. We see the same people when we have the Verdict Awards at the beginning of each year. Seeing a friend on the Global Leaderboard or top the Verdict Awards is anecdotal. We want to show that our picks game is undisputedly a game of skill through statistics.

# What is a game skill?

The definition of a game of skill varies wildly for each jurisdiction. For our analysis, we define it as a game where you can improve your outcome over time. If we can prove that, we can prove that some players are better than others. As a counter-example to a game of skill, think of roulette. You can't improve over time; no player is better than another player.

# The Paper

The paper that we're summarizing below is [available here](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1grF5x97VLV6e-0xZRNgyzauoauNeyN3k5a6Uwhw-O3M/edit?usp=sharing). It analyzes our free game, which maps a set of picks to a leaderboard position. It's the foundation of [Verdict Tournaments](https://verdictmma.com/tournaments) which is our free game but with money.

# The Summary

We took our previous data, which contains 570,786 picks and final placement on a leaderboard over 158 events. We added some extra information to the picks to show how many events the player previously played in before the pick. The additional information allows us to easily ask questions like, "Does a player place higher on average if they've participated in more events?". From there, we can feed the data into a program that can graph and interpret the data.

# The Results

We created a graph showing the **Average Placement Percent** on the leaderboard versus the **Previous Number of Events Played**.

![Screen Shot 2022-06-14 at 2.23.01 PM.png](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/23b70b8f-4a77-4ca3-19dd-f7456c4dad00/public)

From there, we can interpret some results visually; it looks like as the **Previous Number of Events Played** increases, the **Average Placement Percent** also increases. Now, I wish we could conclude things there, but we dig deeper using a few known techniques in statistics. 

We calculate a measure of the relationship between two datasets. That technique shows an extremely high probability that the two are related and that the **Previous Number of Events Played** increases as the **Average Placement Percent** increases. Additionally, the result indicates that the outcome is not due to chance. 

For more in-depth information, refer to [the paper](https://docs.google.com/document/d/1grF5x97VLV6e-0xZRNgyzauoauNeyN3k5a6Uwhw-O3M/edit?usp=sharing). You can always reach out to <a href="mailto:support@verdictmma.com">support@verdictmma.com</a> for feedback.

Verdict is a Game of Skill

Verdict MMA

Verdict Tournaments launched on June 11th of this year. Since that point, members of the community have started to feel the experience and familiarize themselves with the Tournaments.

There are still some people that aren’t quite sure how Tournaments work, so we wrote this blog to provide more context. Let’s get into it.

## It’s the Same Game You Know

This is the same predictions game that we’ve always used. You still predict fights and still allocate a certain amount of XP on each fight to earn the most XP possible.

The difference is that you enter Tournaments with entry fees to qualify to win cash prizes. Unlike the free predictions game that we’ve used for years, you can enter multiple tournaments per event. Each Tournament varies in terms of entry fees. There are $1 games, $5 games, $10 games, and more.

![entry.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/57e267a0-300e-42d2-9e2d-c6015de1c800/pub "Screenshot of the Tournaments Leaderboard.")

We’ve also added a fresh look to the picks and leaderboard screens.

## Prizes

![prizes.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/c552ecf7-0ad0-4c0f-fccd-41394bc03f00/pub "Screenshot of a prizes page.")

Each Tournament will have a payout structure that you can find inside the Tournament under the “Prizes” tab. This will show you the number of positions that get paid and how much each position will get paid. 

## The Types of Tournaments

There are currently 3 different types of Tournaments:

Guaranteed Prize Pools

Double-Ups

1 on 1's

## Guaranteed Prize Pools

![gpp.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/4df99c99-b9ee-4dc1-37f8-db514d7d2000/pub "Screenshot of the contest details for a Guaranteed Prize Pool Tournament.")

These Tournaments have the biggest prize pools as they have the most entries. A guaranteed prize pool means that regardless of how many people end up joining a Tournament, the Tournament will continue and the prizes will be paid out.

For example, if there’s a Tournament where the top 250 positions on the leaderboard are to win a cash prize, the top 250 positions will receive a cash prize even if the Tournament doesn’t fill up. If only 250 people joined, that means everyone in the Tournament wins a prize.

## 1 on 1’s

![1on1.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/933d1d84-eecb-4704-c20b-e874560df200/pub "Screenshot of the contest details for a 1 on 1 Tournament.")


This is a fun new concept that we’ve introduced where you go 1 on 1 with another fight fan. There are only two contestants in this Tournament: You and your opponent with a private leaderboard. You both join with the same entry fee, but only one of you wins the cash prize.

## Double Ups

![double up.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/eee54ac9-fdfc-4e2c-037a-c965913e6800/pub "Screenshot of the contest details for a Double Up Tournament.")

This is a Tournament where you double up on your entry fee if you rank higher than half of the leaderboard. All winners in this Tournament earn the same cash prize.

## Multiple Entries

Unlike the free version of the game, you can enter certain tournaments with multiple entries to increase your chances of winning. Each entry can have a different set of predictions or all entries can have the same predictions if you’re feeling confident.

## Spectate

If you’re not participating in Tournaments but are still curious to see how they work, you can watch the Leaderboards of featured Tournaments live on fight night by going to the Tournaments tab and clicking Spectate. From here, you can view the payout structure, the contest details, the leaderboard, and the predictions of those competing. Even if Verdict Tournaments are not yet available in your region, you’re still able to spectate.

## Future Regions

We’re working on bringing Verdict Tournaments across the United States including New Jersey, Arizona, Ohio, and Tennesse in the near future. We’re targeting a launch in the UK this year, and plan on bringing Tournaments to more countries across the world.

## Free Tournaments

![free.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/8b26f75f-f96c-48ed-f7c1-ddb86b753800/pub "Screenshot of the contest details for a Free Tournament.")

If you’re not a resident of an eligible region, don’t worry. You can still compete in free Tournaments to get a feel for the experience as long as you meet the minimum age requirement. This will allow you to experience the new leaderboard and picks pages.

## More Questions?

If you have more questions, [click here to contact us ](https://verdictmma.zendesk.com/hc/en-us/requests/new)or send us a DM on Twitter or Instagram. Our DM’s are open, so don’t hesitate to reach out. We look forward to listening to your feedback so we can continue to enhance the experience.

A Guide to Verdict Tournaments

We’re proud to announce the launch of Verdict Tournaments in the State of Alabama. We’ve worked with Alabama’s Attorney General’s office to bring Tournaments to the State.

The Verdict Community has an already strong presence in Alabama and we’re excited to bring our real-money product to Alabama residents.

This is just the beginning, as we’re working on bringing Verdict Tournaments all across the United States and several countries around the world.

Verdict Tournaments launches in Alabama

We now offer the ability to play while an event is live. Through a new capability that we're releasing for UFC 278 called **Co-Main / Main Only**. Now, latecomers can finally join mid-way through a card — a much-requested feature. There are a few other reasons as well. Below we'll break down the "why" behind **Co-Main / Main Only**.

# 1. Easier for New Fans

One of our core missions at Verdict MMA is to introduce more people to the sport of MMA. We love it, and we know many others will as well. It's tough to crack into, given that we dub anyone who's not hardcore into "a casual". This format is much more friendly to beginners. You only need to know two fights and four fighters going into an event and they're usually the fights with the most familiar faces.

# 2. A Second Wind

If your first few fights flop within Tournaments, you still have hope. You can redeem yourself by joining a wide range of Tournaments. You can join a Featured **Co-Main / Main Only** Tournament like the one we're hosting for UFC 278 or you can challenge a friend to a 1:1 with only two picks.

# 3. Appeal to Latecomers

The final reason is, that it will appeal to latecomers. We all know that bars and the arena tend to fill up throughout the main card. Fans are a range of people and sometimes you happen to be busy at the beginning of the card. Also, through the course of a card, we all get excited as the night evolves. For those fans, they can now join in on the fun.

# The Future 

In the future, we might make Tournaments with the last few prelims or only the first two fights on the main card. 
Throw us a message or a DM with how you're liking Tournaments or suggestions to [support@verdictmma.com](mailto:support@verdictmma.com) or [@VerdictMMA](https://twitter.com/verdictmma) anywhere. At Verdict MMA, we're all fight fans and we're looking to make the best experience possible for you and the community.