UFC Serbia – Fight Night Predictions & Breakdowns Borislav Nikolic vs. Mark Vologdin Borislav Nikolic steps in on short notice in front of his home crowd, and I really like this matchup for him. He’s an unorthodox striker with a well-rounded skill set, good forward pressure and does a great job mixing his attacks to the body. He’s also an opportunistic grappler, with the majority of his finishes coming by submission. Nikolic has never been knocked out. His only two career losses came against Brad Katona by submission and Gamzat Magamadov by decision. Outside of that, he’s finished every opponent he’s beaten apart from one and comes into this fight riding a six-fight win streak, with all six wins coming by finish. He’ll also have a huge physical advantage, standing six inches taller with a significant reach edge. Vologdin is coming off a majority draw in his UFC debut against Castaneda, a fight where he absorbed a lot of damage and was close to being finished. It reminded me of his DWCS loss to Adrian Marinetti, where he showed unbelievable toughness but also some glaring defensive issues. He’s a pressure fighter with good boxing who likes to march forward and attack the legs, but his striking defence isn’t great and he gets hit far too often. I actually think Musasa would’ve caused him problems stylistically, but Nikolic is another level. I can see Nikolic hurting him badly on the feet, and if Vologdin starts shooting takedowns to survive there’s a very good chance he gets caught in a submission. Official play: Nikolic Round 2 or Round 3 finish (covers both KO and submission). Value play: Nikolic submission Confidence: 9/10 ⸻ Jovan Leka vs. Alexander Poppeck Both men have appeared on DWCS. Poppeck was knocked out by Jamahal Hill a few years ago, while this will be Leka’s UFC debut after picking up a decision win on DWCS that wasn’t enough to earn a contract at the time. Poppeck steps in on short notice after Max Gemmis withdrew. He’s naturally a light heavyweight, so although he’ll probably have the speed advantage on the feet, he’s going to be massively undersized against Leka. He’s also shown that he can be controlled by smaller light heavyweights and struggles to get back to his feet once taken down. His cardio isn’t great either. Leka is a natural heavyweight with serious power, but I actually think his biggest advantage comes in the grappling. Once he gets on top, he has excellent control, dangerous ground-and-pound and a solid submission game if the finish presents itself. I think the size difference ends up being the deciding factor. Leka gets him down early, controls him and eventually finishes him with ground-and-pound. Official play: Leka by Ground-and-Pound TKO Round 1 or 2. Value play: Leka submission round 1 or 2 Confidence: 8/10 ⸻ Kyle Prepolec vs. Mateusz Rebecki This is a very favourable matchup for Rebecki in my opinion. His win over Oralbai has aged like fine wine, and although he was submitted by Grant Dawson last time out, I actually thought he looked good early before engaging too much in the grappling. Before that, he was involved in two absolute wars with Ludovit Klein and Duncan We know exactly what we’re getting from Rebecki. He’s an aggressive pressure fighter who constantly walks opponents down, carries serious power in his hands, has excellent wrestling and is also a BJJ black belt. Prepolec is primarily a striker who was brought back into the UFC to fight Benoît Saint Denis. Last time out against Drew Dober, it became obvious that he struggles badly when opponents put him under sustained pressure. Once Dober increased the pace after the point deduction, Prepolec folded and looked like he mentally checked out. That’s exactly the kind of fight Rebecki thrives in. I think he’ll break Prepolec down with pressure, get the fight to the mat and finish him with ground-and-pound. Official play: Rebecki by Ground-and-Pound TKO Round 2 or 3. Value play: Rebecki by submission Confidence: 9/10 ⸻ Stephanie Luciano vs. Marina Spasić Luciano is primarily a striker, but she’s shown real improvements in her grappling, picking up a submission in her last fight against Oliveira. She’ll have both the height and reach advantage here, along with more UFC experience. She has good cardio, solid top control and is becoming a much more complete mixed martial artist. Spasić is a professional kickboxer who likes to take her time early, make reads and gradually increase the pressure as the fight goes on. She does a great job attacking the body and has several late second and third-round finishes. Six of her seven wins have come by knockout, so the power is definitely real, although the level of competition hasn’t been anywhere near UFC standard. The biggest question is her grappling. I really like Luciano’s ability to mix in takedowns and control the fight on the mat. I think that’s where she separates herself and edges a competitive fight over three rounds. Official play: Luciano by Decision. Hedge:Spasić by KO in Round 2 or 3 has value considering her style and finishing ability. Value play: Luciano by submission Confidence 6/10 ⸻ Michael Oliveira vs. Oban Elliott Oban Elliott comes into this fight on a two-fight losing streak. Against Micallef he actually looked good in the opening round despite being dropped, but once Micallef got hold of him on the mat the fight was over almost instantly. I’m pretty sure this is the last fight on Oban’s UFC contract, and another loss could see him released. He’s shown durability concerns throughout his career. He was ko’d twice in Cage Warriors, dropped by Val Woodburn, dropped by Brito on DWCS. Oban is mainly a striker, but he has shown that he likes to wrestle, control opponents and win minutes from top position. He’s not much of a finisher, with most of his wins going the distance. Against bigger fighters, like Bonner, he’s struggled when backed up against the cage and has found it difficult to circle away from pressure. People are completely writing him off, but if he avoids taking too much damage early there’s definitely a path to victory. He’s probably the more technical fighter overall, has UFC experience, and there are still questions surrounding Oliveira’s grappling and cardio. Oliveira has built an impressive record, but it hasn’t come against elite competition. His last two LFA fights both went much longer than expected, with Aldo Pereira surviving to a decision despite being hurt several times, and Gama lasting until the closing seconds before finally getting finished. That being said I still think this is Oliveira’s fight. He’s an absolute sniper. He fights from a wide stance, stalks opponents towards the fence and picks them apart with calf kicks, jabs and perfectly timed counters. He’s happy to absorb a shot if it creates an opening to land one of his own, and he does his best work when opponents overcommit. His DWCS performance against Valenzuela was brutal, and although he’s become more patient recently, the finishing instincts are still there. We haven’t really seen much of Oliveira’s grappling yet, but I think Oban’s only realistic path is to wrestle heavily and control him. I’m not convinced he’ll be able to do that. Oliveira looks like the stronger, more physical fighter and I think he’ll do enough to fight the hands, create separation and keep the fight standing. I see Oban surviving the first round but taking a lot of damage before eventually getting stopped. Official play: Oliveira by KO Round 1 or 2 Value play: Olivera decision. Hedge: Oban decision Confidence: 10/10 ⸻ Valesto Cepo vs. Gilbert Urbina Cepo is an absolute brawler with heavy hands. Every one of his wins has come inside the distance, with his only trip to the scorecards ending in defeat. He likes to pressure opponents from the opening bell, throwing powerful hooks with bad intentions, and a lot of his finishes come in the first round. His biggest weakness is clearly his grappling, but if he gets opponents backing up towards the fence, he’s incredibly dangerous. I actually think the UFC have given him a very favourable matchup here. Fighting at home only adds to that, and for me he’s one of the strongest plays on the card. Urbina is a longer-range striker who also has power, but his defence has always been a concern. He carries his chin high, gets over-aggressive and leaves himself open to big counters. His clearest path to victory is through the grappling because Cepo has shown real weaknesses there. Both men should come out aggressively. Urbina has enough power to hurt Cepo early, like he did against Medic, but I think that’s where the danger starts for him. Standing and trading with Cepo usually ends badly, and Urbina has shown he’s hittable. He’s also moving up a weight class to middleweight. I think Cepo catches him inside the opening few minutes. Official play: Cepo by KO Round 1. Hedge: Urbina KO round 1. Value play: Under 0.5 rounds Confidence: 10/10 Dennis Buzukja vs. Bogdan Grad Dennis Buzukja is coming off a brutal knockout loss to Barbosa where he was put out cold. He’s primarily a striker with decent power, good toughness and solid cardio, but he’s shown some clear weaknesses. He struggles badly when opponents pressure him and back him up against the cage, often finding it difficult to circle away. He also has a habit of coming forward with his chin in the air, which sees him get clipped far too often. Grad is coming off a TKO loss to Riley, but he actually looked good before getting finished. He always starts fights fast, applying relentless pressure and backing opponents towards the cage where he mixes in takedowns. Although he’s mainly a striker, he’s got an awkward, unorthodox style that can be difficult to deal with. Neither man has great striking defence, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they both have their moments. I think Grad is the more complete mixed martial artist. He’s the cleaner striker, has the better wrestling and a much stronger control game. Buzukja probably has the edge in power and cardio, but I really don’t understand why the betting line is this wide because I don’t think there’s that much between them. This either ends with someone getting knocked out or we get a bloody three-round war. I actually like Buzukja’s chances of finding a late Round 3 knockout if he can keep dragging the fight back to the feet, but overall I trust Grad to bank rounds with pressure and wrestling. Official play: Grad by Decision. Value play: Buzukja by KO round 3 Hedge: Buzukja decision Confidence: 6/10 ⸻ Nina Milovic vs. Hailey Cowan Milovic is a sharp striker with a strong amateur background. She throws fast, accurate combinations with real pop in her hands, has good cardio and has already shown she can grapple when needed. She’s also opportunistic when submission opportunities present themselves. Cowan is a lengthy striker with a 7-5 record, but I just don’t see many paths to victory here. Milovic is better wherever the fight goes and has competed against the higher level of opposition. Cowan has been submitted three times, with four of her five losses coming inside the distance. I think Milovic has advantages everywhere and can expose Cowan’s grappling early. Official play: Milovic by Submission Round 1. Value play: Milovic sub Confidence: 8/10 ⸻ Ludovit Klein vs. Tofiq Musayev Klein is a technical kickboxer with excellent defensive wrestling and far more UFC experience than Musayev. He’s coming off that war with Rebecki where he injured his ankle late but still managed to win the decision. He’s faced the much tougher competition throughout his career and is the cleaner striker. Musayev is a pressure fighter who marches opponents down throwing heavy hooks and overhands. He’s dangerous on the feet but can also wrestle when needed, using heavy ground-and-pound to wear opponents down. His last win over Bahamondes was impressive. He was badly hurt and almost finished early before recovering, landing a huge elbow that completely changed the fight then doing serious damage from top position. Cashing as a +260 underdog made that performance even more impressive. Klein is the better striker and the more complete fighter overall. I don’t really see Musayev finishing him because Klein has proven to be extremely durable and has never been stopped. If Musayev is going to win, I think it’s through damage, pressure and enough control time to edge a decision. Klein also has the better submission game if this fight unexpectedly hits the mat. Official play: Klein by Decision. Value play/Hedge: Musayev by Decision or KO. I think that’s where the betting value is if you’re looking to back the underdog. Confidence: 7/10 ⸻ Dusko Todorovic vs. Robert Valentin Dusko is a dangerous early finisher with serious power and a solid submission game of his own. Eight of his wins have come in the opening round and he’s coming off a quick submission win over Jose Medina. He’s also a black belt in BJJ with very good wrestling and underrated ground-and-pound the problem is his striking defence. He’s been knocked out in the first round four times during his career and has shown he’s extremely hittable whenever fights become wild. Valentin is one of the most unorthodox fighters on the roster. He thrives in chaotic exchanges because he’s brilliant at capitalising on mistakes. His biggest strength is his grappling. He’s constantly hunting submissions, has excellent finishing instincts and is very dangerous when taking the back. On the feet he’s awkward to read, carries real power and throws nasty elbows. One weakness is that he’s not at his best fighting off his back, so if Dusko controls the wrestling early he could have success. I just think Dusko eventually makes a mistake. Whether it’s a sloppy shot or getting over-aggressive in an exchange, Valentin is exactly the type of fighter who punishes those errors. I really like Valentin to find a choke early. Official play: Valentin by Submission Round 1. This is one of those fights where betting either side by a first-round finish makes sense. I really don’t see this one reaching the judges. Under 1.5 is free. Value/hedge play: Dusko KO round 1. Confidence: 7/10 Milos Janic vs. Noah Gugnon Milos Janic is an aggressive pressure striker with real killer instinct. All 19 of his professional wins have come inside the distance, telling you everything you need to know about his style. He’s a very experienced fighter with sharp boxing, powerful straight shots down the middle and heavy hooks. He’s extremely durable, constantly moves forward and has no problem standing in the pocket and trading. He also has a solid submission game if the fight hits the mat. One thing I really like about Janic is that he almost welcomes aggression. When opponents come forward looking to force a firefight, it plays straight into his game because his counter shots are nasty. Gugnon is also a proven finisher. Every one of his finishes has come inside the opening two rounds, with six knockouts and three submissions. Like Janic, he’s a pressure fighter who forces a high pace, overwhelms opponents with volume and mixes his attacks to the body well. He’s also shown good grappling, with a heavy top game and damaging ground-and-pound. The downside is that he throws everything with bad intentions. He loads up on his shots and can leave big openings when he starts over-swinging. I don’t think this fight sees the judges. Both men are aggressive finishers who are happy to stand in the pocket, and I expect fireworks from the opening bell. Official play: Janic by KO Round 1 or 2. This is also one of them fights where betting the under 1.5 is a definite and betting both fighters via early finish value if on gugnon to get an early KO. Confidence: 9/10 ⸻ Aleksandar Rakic vs. Marcin Tybura Rakic makes the move up to heavyweight looking for a fresh start after a difficult run. He’s a technical kickboxer with serious finishing power who uses his range brilliantly, landing powerful calf kicks while staying patient and composed on the feet. He also has solid defensive wrestling and good cardio over three rounds. Although he’s coming off a knockout loss to Azamat and hasn’t won a fight in four years, I still think he’s the more skilled fighter in this matchup. Watching him this week, he actually looks huge for heavyweight despite carrying a lean frame. He’ll be the faster and more athletic. Tybura is the experienced UFC veteran. He’s a well-rounded heavyweight who does his best work in the clinch, using trips, top control, submissions and ground-and-pound to wear opponents down. In his last fight against Fortune, he was badly hurt early but survived fortune gassed there. At 40 years old, though, I think Tybura is starting to fade. He’s absorbed a lot of damage throughout his career and hasn’t looked particularly good on the feet recently. He still has the cardio to compete for three rounds, but the speed just isn’t there anymore. Rakic feels like a man with something to prove. This move to heavyweight gives him a fresh start, while Tybura looks like he’s approaching the final stage of his career. Similar to what we seen with Whittaker. I think Rakic’s speed and striking eventually become too much. Official play: Rakic by KO Round 2 or 3. Hedge: Rakic by Decision if Tybura’s durability holds up. Confidence: 8/10 ⸻ Jan Blachowicz vs. Navajo Stirling Jan Blachowicz is one of the most experienced veterans on the roster. He’s a complete mixed martial artist with excellent kickboxing, a powerful left hand and some of the best calf kicks in the division. He’s always been a fighter who wins minutes, slowly breaking opponents down before taking over as fights progress. He comes into this one off the draw with Guskov. Although he was hurt early, I actually thought he finished the fight stronger and would’ve stopped Guskov if it had been scheduled for five rounds. The problem is age. At 43 years old, Jan is clearly at the tail end of his career. He’s still incredibly tough and durable, but he’s no longer the athlete he once was. Stirling is 15 years younger and entering his physical prime. He’s a very talented kickboxer with excellent volume, dangerous leg kicks, solid takedown defence and good cardio. His biggest criticism came in his last fight against Cutelaba, where he made things harder than they needed to be by engaging in the grappling despite having a huge striking advantage. Even then, he still found the second-round knockout. I think this is simply a case of catching Jan at the right time. Stirling should have advantages in speed, volume and athleticism, and I expect him to stay disciplined enough to outpoint the veteran over three rounds. Official play: Stirling by Decision. Value play: Stirling KO round 2 or 2 Confidence: 8/10 ⸻ Uros Medic vs. Daniel Rodriguez Uros Medic is one of the most dangerous finishers on the roster. He carries serious power in both hands and comes into this fight riding a three-fight winning streak, with all three victories ending by first-round knockout. Eight of his career knockouts have also come in the opening round. He’s at his best when opponents are willing to trade in the pocket. Medic controls distance well, throws explosive counters and is simply a kill-or-be-killed type of fighter. He’s also noticeably faster and more technical than Rodriguez. Rodriguez is a durable boxer who enjoys fighting at close range and has put together a three-fight winning streak despite showing signs of slowing down. Before he went to jail he had Kevin Holland badly hurt multiple times, only to fade late and get hurt himself in a bizarre fight he ended up winning. Half of Rodriguez training camp for this fight was spent in jail, and at 39 years old I think he’s reaching the final stage of his career. I just don’t see him having the speed to compete with Medic. Before Rodriguez can really settle into the fight, I think Medic finds the shot that ends it. His knockout of Geoff Neal was one of the most impressive finishes of his career, and I think he carries that momentum straight into this matchup. Official play: Medic by KO Round 1. Confidence: 10/10 MY PERSONAL LOCKS 🔐 UROS ROUND 1 KO CEPO ROUND 1 KO OR FIGHT ENDS ROUND 1 OLIVEIRA KO UNDER 1.5

IMO the PFL x MVP merger is amazing news….. if they do it right. The problem with PFL right now is the fact that they have amazing scouting, some amazing prospects and some really elite fighters, but barely anyone’s going out of their way to watch the PFL because they’re awful at promoting, but with Jake Paul’s MVP being on Netflix, they’ll have the biggest Fighters easily accessible for casual fans to tune in, and maybe if Jake Paul co-main events the first show on Netflix behind a Ngannou Nemkov title fight, or ditcheva, or Musaev, it will hopefully bring alot more eyes to the sport and give some needed competition to the UFC. I thought the 1st MVP MMA show was great and they showed a lot of promise with guys like David Mgoyan, Jason Jackson, Phumi Nkuta, Salahdine Parnasse, Francis Ngannou and Mokaev who was meant to fight, so they’re clearly serious, and if they can keep a similar format to what the PFL are running right now, with shows around Africa and Middle East I think this could be huge for MMA

(28-8) Joseph Benavidez turns 42 today ! HBD 🥳 Joey ! Joe is an all time great and doesn’t get talked about much. He is probably the greatest Flyweight who has never won a title.Go back and watch Benevidez vs DJ @ UFC 152! He lost split decision but it was a tremendous scrap. Joe is married to our lovely UFC reporter Miss Meagan Olivi and they have one daughter together.

Just rewatched Yan Merab II and it was honestly a lot closer than I thought….. until the last 15 seconds of round 3 😂. First 2 rounds were honestly really close but you’ll do well to find a fighter that’s better than Petr in the 4th round of that fight, completely took his lunch money. Trilogy will be amazing and I wouldn’t count out merab fs