Douglas Vegas Bets

The UFC returns to the Apex this weekend, headlined by fast-rising Middleweight contenders Michel Pereira and Anthony Hernandez. I went over that matchup and every other fight on the main card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

**Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 10/17/2024**

## Michel Pereira +113 vs. Anthony Hernandez -139

Middleweights with long win streaks will clash in this high-stakes main event. Michel Pereira is a wild and dangerous finisher with explosive power and an unorthodox style, although his cardio is questionable. Anthony Hernandez is a relentless chain wrestler who has a nasty submission game, although he is hittable on the feet, especially early in fights.

I've got Hernandez here as if he can get past the first few minutes. I see him wearing down Pereira and taking over the fight with his grappling.

Prediction: Hernandez by 3rd Round Submission (Best Bet)

## Rob Font +320 vs. Kyler Phillips -435

It's a tough test for a rising talent at Bantamweight as he faces a battle-tested veteran. Rob Font is a high-volume boxer who has battled with many of the division's best, although his durability has failed him of late, with him being dropped and hurt badly numerous times across his last few outings. Kyler Phillips is a unique fighter with a flashy and dangerous striking style to go with a nasty submission game, although, at times, he can gas himself out by going too hard early, as was the case against Raulian Paiva.

I'll go with Phillips here, as he is the younger fighter on his way up and has more tools in his arsenal. I lean towards him getting a decision, as Font is tough to KO, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a finish with his durability fading.

Prediction: Phillips by Decision

## Sumudaerji +185 vs. Charles Johnson -233

Flyweights looking to establish their place in the rankings will face off in this one. Sumudaerji is a solid striker with a long reach for the division, although his grappling has been a serious issue over his career, with him having been submitted several times. Charles Johnson is a fast-paced fighter with good boxing who often has to overcome a slow start to get the win.

I lean towards Sumudaerji at this price as he will likely have more success striking at range. Johnson has yet to show much of a ground game at this level, which limits the concerns about submission defense on the other side.

Prediction: Sumudaerji by Decision

## Jake Hadley -526 vs. Cameron Smotherman +380

This is a short-notice clash here at Bantamweight between two young prospects. Jake Hadley is a solid submission grappler who showed solid striking skills in his last fight, winning a decision over Caolan Loughran in his first fight since moving up to this division. Cameron Smotherman steps in for his debut here. He is a striker with serious power in his hands but is coming off his first career win by submission, showing that he's still adding to his game at twenty-eight.

I'll pick Hadley here, but I can't lay this price on him as Smotherman has dangerous power and has never been submitted, with Hadley having struggled to get fights to the ground on his terms so far in the UFC.

Prediction: Hadley by Decision

## Darren Elkins -110 vs. Daniel Pineda -111

Featherweight veterans square off here to open the main card. Darren Elkins is a gritty wrestler known for his ability to take damage and come back to win. Daniel Pineda is a pure finisher, with all twenty-eight of his career wins coming inside the distance, showing his all-offense style; although he has slowed down since his younger days, he looks a step slower than he once did.

I lean towards Pineda as he is the more dangerous of the two, with slightly less damage taken over his career, although I am not eager to bet either side here.

Prediction: Pindea by 2nd Round TKO

## Matheus Nicolau +160 vs. Asu Almabayev -200

It's a clash of styles here in the Flyweight featured prelim. Matheus Nicolau is looking to bounce back from two straight knockout losses; he is a solid striker with good takedown defense, but his volume on the feet does leave some to be desired. Asu Almabayev comes into this one looking to make a name for himself, coming off three straight victories to start his UFC run, showing a strong wrestling attack and dangerous submission game.

I'm taking Nicolau here as he has the takedown defense to force a striking match here, where I give him a slight advantage despite his durability concerns.

Prediction: Nicolau by Decision

## Brad Katona +180 vs. Jean Matsumoto -227

Bantamweights at very different career points will collide in this interesting matchup. Brad Katona is the only two-time Ultimate Fighter winner, but he has yet to have much consistent success at the UFC level despite having shown a well-rounded skillset with good boxing and wrestling. Jean Matsumoto is an undefeated prospect coming in off a debut win over Dan Argueta, in which he showed his solid striking base along with the nasty choke game that he has used to finish several past opponents.

I'll take Katona here, as he has the skills to match Matsumoto anywhere and is the more experienced of the two. I see this playing out to a close decision, with Katona coming on strong late with his cardio advantage. 

Prediction: Katona by Decision

## Robelis Despaigne -370 vs. Austen Lane +280

Heavyweight finishers face off in the first fight of the night. Robelis Despaigne is a dangerous knockout artist with an Olympic taekwondo background, but his ground game proved virtually non-existent last time out, as Waldo Cortes-Acosta was able to wrestle him for three rounds. Austen Lane is a former football player with decent power in his hands and some wrestling, although he has not been able to sustain that over an entire fight, and he doesn't take damage well.

I see Despaigne landing big early to get a quick finish, as Lane doesn't handle power shots well and is unlikely to keep up a wrestling-heavy attack for three rounds.

Prediction: Despaigne by 1st Round KO

UFC Fight Night Pereira vs. Hernandez Odds Breakdown

Joey Kolnicki

The UFC hosts yet another outstanding Fight Night card from the Apex Center in Las Vegas. Throughout the card, there’s fantastic matchups and high-level fighters looking to add to their highlight reels. Although the main card is excellent, there’s plenty of exciting preliminary bouts. Of these early matchups, the most intriguing might be Mathues Nicolau vs. Asu Almabayev. 

*This fight takes place in the Flyweight (125 lbs.) division.*

Matheus Nicolau has a professional record of 19-5-1 and has won three of his last five fights. He has UFC victories over Matt Schnell, Manel Kape, and Tim Elliot. 

Asu Almabayev has a professional record of 20-2-0 and is on a sixteen-fight win streak. He has UFC victories over Jose Johnson, Ode’ Osbourne, and CJ Vergara. 

![nicolau2.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/9a670450-093e-4c02-b608-2efacc1b6d00/public "Matheus Nicolau fires a front kick at Manel Kape. Credit: MMA Fighting.")

Nicolau is very defensively sound on the feet and remains elusive throughout, with only 34% of significant strikes attempted on him landing. He tends to float on the outside and has excellent distance management, regularly darting in and out of the pocket to land damage. Training at Novo União, he is a counter-striker who will often dip his head to throw overhands, especially with his right. Nicolau is a black belt in BJJ, averaging over one takedown landed and nearly one submission attempted per fifteen minutes, but often chooses to . His pace tends to increase as the fight continues, and he does a great job of changing levels and attacking both the head and body. All of his submissions have come via choke, and he’s extremely dangerous if he finds his opponent’s neck. 

![almabayaev.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/1c71fe56-7161-4743-b23c-b82ffe67bf00/public "Asu Almabayev lands a commanding takedown on Ode' Osbourne. Credit: Zuffa LLC.")

Almabayev is exceptionally well-rounded, with dominant wrestling and flashy striking. He’ll constantly throw spinning attacks on the feet and can land damage at range or in the pocket. He has landed 17 takedowns in just three UFC fights and has excellent chain wrestling, able to find takedowns from anywhere. Training at Kill Cliff FC, Almabayev is an efficient grappler who never wastes energy or telegraphs his shots or transitions. He has smothering top control, rarely allowing his opponent to throw up any offense as he pursues a finish. Most of his finishes have come after round one, and he tends to heat up as the fight continues. 

![almabayev1.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/bbdd08ef-790b-4acc-bf14-13fb30657700/public "Asu Almabayev skillfully applies a rear-naked choke to Jose Johnson.")

This is a fight you definitely won’t want to miss.


Verdict's Sleeper Fight of the Week: Nicolau vs. Almabayev

The UFC is back in the Apex this weekend with a solid fight night card headlined by former title challenger Brandon Royval taking on the undefeated prospect Tatsuro Taira at Flyweight. I went over that fight and several other big matchups on the card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it. 

**Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 10/11/2024**

## Brandon Royval +230 vs. Tatsuro Taira -294

Flyweights both have their eyes on a shot at the title with a win in this main event clash. Brandon Royval has made a name for himself as one of the most exciting fighters in the UFC as he utilizes his insane cardio to set a wild pace, and his length for the weight class mixed with his ground game makes him very difficult to hold down for anyone other than champion Alexandre Pantoja. Tatsuro Taira has quickly risen as one of the sports' top prospects, having shown an incredible submission game and much improved striking that he used to finish Carlos Hernandez.

I'm taking the dog here in Royval as I see him being able to keep this standing and setting his usual insane pace, which Taira will not be able to match.

Prediction: Brandon Royval by 3rd Round TKO

## Brad Tavares +155 vs. Jun Yong Park -192

After a fight week cancellation earlier this year, these two Middleweights finally met in the octagon here. Brad Tavares has fought many of the best in the world on his run, having shown his toughness, solid striking, and very high-level takedown defense. Jun Yong Park is a well-rounded fighter who has used his ground game to submit three of his last four opponents and has a high-paced boxing attack on the feet. 

I like Tavares in this one, as he should have the takedown defense to keep this one standing, where he has a more diverse arsenal at his disposal and will not have to fear the power coming back like he has had to in his last few losses.

Prediction: Tavares by Decision

## Chidi Njokuani -172 vs. Jared Gooden +141

Power punchers collide in this must-see Welterweight matchup. Chidi Njokuani is a dangerous knockout puncher with several first-round wins, although he has shown his flaws over his last four, struggling when fights are extended or he faces adversity. Jared Gooden is a fun fighter to watch, with powerful boxing, a hands-down, forward-pressure style, and an opportunistic submission game. 

I lean towards Gooden here as I see him as the higher-output fighter with better cardio. He will likely take over late in the fight if he gets past round one.

Prediction: Gooden by 3rd Round TKO

## Grant Dawson -417 vs. Rafa Garcia +310

Veteran Lightweights square off here. Grant Dawson has shown he is one of the best grapplers in the division with his strong wrestling and ability to control from the back, although his durability will always be a concern now, with him having been knocked out in under a minute in both his career losses. Rafa Garcia has quietly won four of his last five since dropping his first two in the UFC; he has decent boxing and a good ground game, although he struggles when facing other solid grapplers.

This will likely end up being a grappling match, and Dawson has proven he can control other solid grapplers like Joe Solecki, so I'll pick him to have a similar performance here.

Prediction: Dawson by Decision

## Daniel Rodriguez -217 vs. Alex Morono +175

Veteran Welterweights, each looking to get back on track, face off in this one. Daniel Rodriguez is a tough boxer with good volume and power, although his ground game isn't the best, as Neil Magny was able to finish him there after tiring him. Alex Morono is a well-rounded veteran with solid skills, although he has always reacted poorly to eating punches, and his cardio is suspect at times, which has cost him several times.

I'll pick Rodriguez here as I see him landing the more damaging shots throughout the fight and eventually overwhelming Morono to find the finish.

Prediction: Rodriguez by 3rd Round KO

## Josh Fremd +136 vs. Abdul Razak Alhassan -167

Middleweight finishers go head to head in this explosive clash. Josh Fremd is a big and athletic Middleweight with wild striking and a decent ground game, although his defense has been an issue as he is very willing to take damage. Abdul Razak Alhassan is a powerhouse with insane power in his hands and kicks; his judo background helps him keep fights standing, although, with his power, his cardio and pace often are not the best.

It only takes one mistake against Alhassan, and I believe Fremd will get wild early, and it will cost him with the fight ending in a quick Alhassan finish.

Prediction: Alhassan by 1st Round KO

## Jonathan Pearce -185 vs. Pat Sabatini +149

High-level grapplers will square off here at Featherweight. Jonathan Pearce is a very high pace wrestler with wild striking, although his defense, both on the feet and ground, leaves some to be desired. Pat Sabatini is a tremendous grappler who has had some very strong performances in the UFC, although his durability is a concern, as he has suffered two first-round knockout losses in his last three fights.

I lean towards Sabatini here as he is more likely to control the fight on the ground with the submission upside. Pearce not being known for punching power also makes his durability less of a concern.

Prediction: Sabatini by Decision

## Dan Argueta +146 vs. Cody Haddon -182

It's a tough test for an impressive prospect here at Bantamweight. Dan Argueta is a relentless wrestler who has had some unfortunate results in the UFC, with a dominant performance against Ronnie Lawrence going down as a no-contest. Cody Haddon makes his debut off Dana White's contender series here, and he impressed many with his clean striking skills and the ground skills to find the submission win over Billy Brand. 

I'm picking Argueta here as I believe his pressure and wrestling will give Haddon trouble and lead to a competitive decision.

Prediction: Argueta by Decision

## Clayton Carpenter -213 vs. Lucas Rocha +170

Flyweights open the card here in this fun matchup of young fighters. Clayton Carpenter has caught my attention as a real threat in this division with his tremendous grappling skills and unusual power for this weight in his striking. Lucas Rocha is an explosive striker with real knockout power, although he has surrendered a lot of ground control time in several of his wins, allowing multiple opponents to take his back.

I really like Carpenter in this spot, as he is better everywhere, but I expect him to take the path of least resistance with his massive advantage on the ground.

Prediction: Carpenter by 1st Round Submission (Best Bet)

UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira Odds Breakdown

The UFC returns to its headquarters at the APEX Center with an outstanding Fight Night card. From top to bottom, the card is filled with excellent matchups and exciting scraps. While the main card looks fantastic, plenty of great preliminary bouts are preceding it. One of the best of these matchups is Themba Gorimbo vs. Niko Price.

**This fight takes place in the Welterweight (170 lbs.) division.**

Themba Gorimbo has a professional record of 13-4-0 and has won four of his last five fights. He has UFC victories over Ramiz Brahimaj, Takashi Sato, and Pete Rodriguez.

Niko Price has a professional record of 16-7-0 and has won two of his last five outings. He has UFC victories over Alex Morono, Randy Brown, and Tim Means.

![gorimbo1.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/35ffd709-cf08-47db-54f3-2ba8338d9000/public "Themba Gorimbo fires a right hand at Ramiz Brahimaj. Credit: MMA Fighting.")

Gorimbo is a tenacious grappler constantly looking to get the fight to the mat and find a finish. He’s averaging over four takedowns landed per fifteen minutes and is willing to work hard along the fence to secure them. He’s always working to improve and reach an advantageous spot in top or bottom position. Training at MMA Masters, Gorimbo’s grappling sets up his striking, and he has solid power in his hands. He has heavy top pressure and is fantastic at finding his way to his opponent’s back. He is most dangerous early on but will push a consistent pace throughout.

![nprice4.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/62d60ce2-5b61-43d3-57ea-5732f4546700/public "Niko Price launches a head kick at Alex Morono. Credit: MMA Fighting.")

Price is a gritty scrapper, always willing to exchange in the pocket, and is comfortable anywhere the fight goes. He’s constantly looking to close the distance, regularly blitzing in with wide hooks and looping shots. He fights behind his jab and uses his striking to set up his grappling, striking into the clinch before pursuing takedowns. Training at Roufusport, Price has heavy top control and will constantly work on the ground, never accepting a position. He’s very tough to control and has a dangerous guard, continually throwing up submissions off his pack to escape danger. He has only seen the judge’s scorecards four times in his career and always pushes a heavy pace. 

![nprice3.jpg](https://imagedelivery.net/kd_oB-9dZCrENaJzp7HSCA/39d2f0ed-db83-4116-54d7-5e0bd9d22a00/public "Niko Price pumps out his jab at Donald Cerrone. Credit: MMA Mania.")

This is a fight you definitely won’t want to miss.


Verdict's Sleeper Fight of the Week: Gorimbo vs. Price

It was a valiant effort from the challenger, but Alex Pereira prevailed in the end, winning with a fourth-round knockout over Khalil Rountree Jr. to defend his Light Heavyweight title.

## Result: Alex Pereira def. Khalil Rountree Jr. via 4th Round TKO (4:36)

Early on, Rountree Jr. had some success with his boxing, landing several big right hands and seemingly winning through two rounds and early in the third. Late in the third round, it became clear that Pereira's damage was mounting, and Rountree Jr. was in real trouble. The fourth round saw Pereira dismantle a broken but tough Rountree Jr., eventually breaking him down late in the round to get the stoppage and defend the belt.


>"This division is great" - Alex Pereira

What did you think of Pereira's performance? Let us know in the comments.

Alex Pereira Defends Title With Brutal Knockout at UFC 307

After a five-round battle, Julianna Pena had her hand raised in the UFC 307 co-main event to claim the Bantamweight title for the second time in her career.

## Result: Julianna Pena def. Raquel Pennington via Split-Decision (48-47, 47-48, 48-47)

The first round was a close striking match in which Pennington landed some clean shots with a nice uppercut. The second and third rounds saw Pena have success with her grappling, taking dominant positions and attempting submissions. The fourth round saw Pennington take back momentum with a head kick early and a big right hand that dropped Pena. The final round saw more striking, with Pennington maintaining the higher output until the final bell.


>"I'd really like Amanda Nunes to come back" - Julianna Pena

What did you think of scoring? Let us know in the comments.

Julianna Pena Reclaims Title With Split-Decision Win at UFC 307

Mario Bautista used his pace and pressure to take the decision in a very close fight against Jose Aldo on the UFC 307 main card.

## Result: Mario Bautista def. Jose Aldo via Split-Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)

The first round saw a lot of volume and some clinch control from Bautista, which got him off to a strong start. Round two saw Aldo do damage early with his jab and control the round with his striking. The final round had some back-and-forth striking but largely saw Bautista control the clinch to take the razor-close decision win.


>"He didn't get off the cage, not my problem" - Mario Bautista

What did you think of the fight? Let us know in the comments.

Mario Bautista Wins Split Decision Over Jose Aldo at UFC 307

It was a strong performance from Roman Dolidze, who won the fight over Kevin Holland, who suffered a rib injury on the UFC 307 main card.

## Result: Roman Dolidze def. Kevin Holland via 1st Round TKO (Rib Injury)

The fight started with a takedown and some control from the full guard for Roman Dolidze before an eventual armbar attempt saw Kevin Holland give up his mount and injure his rib, which was enough to force the end of the fight.

What did you think of the fight? Let us know in the comments.

Roman Dolidze Wins After Injury to Kevin Holland at UFC 307

Kayla Harrison likely secured her spot as the next challenger for the Bantamweight title with a decision win over Ketlen Viera to open the UFC 307 main card.

## Result: Kayla Harrison def. Ketlen Viera via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)

The first round saw some Harrison control the clinch before securing a takedown and scoring some serious damage at the end. Round two was rather close, with some control from Harrison but more damage from Viera. Round three saw some good early striking exchanges before Harrison secured a takedown and controlled the remainder of the fight.


>"I came here cause I wanna be the best in the world" - Kayla Harrison

What did you think of Harrison's performance? Let us know in the comments.

Kayla Harrison Wins Decision Over Ketlen Viera at UFC 307

The UFC is back for its yearly trip to Salt Lake City, Utah, at the Vivint Arena, headlined by the promotion's most active champion as Light Heavyweight king Alex Pereira looks to defend his title for a third time this year against Khalil Rountree Jr. I went over that fight and every other matchup on the card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

**Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 10/1/2024**

## Alex Pereira -500 vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. +360

This is a surprising matchup for the Light Heavyweight title in our main event. Alex Pereira has taken his powerful kickboxing style and used it to dominate every opponent thus far during his Light Heavyweight run, which has seen him finish three straight title fights inside two rounds, with two of those finishes coming from his signature left hook. Khalil Rountree Jr. takes a massive step up here after knocking out Anthony Smith late last year to extend his win streak to five, with four coming by finish. However, the one decision against Dustin Jacoby was somewhat disputed, with Rountree being out volumed through most of the fight and not landing anything of major significance.

In my eyes, this is Pereira's fight to lose, as he is on another level with the striking and has been more active against tougher competition than Rountree, who has some tough losses on his record, including Johnny Walker and Marcin Prachnio.

Prediction: Pereira by 1st Round KO

## Raquel Pennington -169 vs. Juliana Pena +137

Bantamweights will finally meet in the octagon with a belt on the line after a decade of buildup since their time on The Ultimate Fighter. Raquel Pennington is on a six-fight win streak, including her title, claiming victory over Mayra Bueno Silva early in the year, where she showed her well-rounded skillset with good boxing, wrestling, and her ability to defend a dangerous submission attack. Juliana Pena is a tough grappler who returns here from several years away since her defeat to Amanda Nunes, where she was dominated for five rounds in the rematch after her shocking upset victory in the first fight between the two.

I like Pennington to win by decision in this one. She has been the more active of the two and should have the advantage everywhere the fight goes, with much better striking and solid wrestling.

Prediction: Pennington by Decision

## Jose Aldo +120 vs. Mario Bautista -147

A legend returns once again to continue a late-career run at Bantamweight. Jose Aldo looks to turn back another up-and-comer here with his high-level boxing and renowned grappling defense, which he proved still holds up despite his age in his last performance against Jonathan Martinez. Mario Bautista has quietly won six straight fights and shown a very strong skill set, including a dangerous ground game that has helped him beat and submit several other solid grapplers. 

I've got Bautista in this one, as he is in his prime, facing a much older and once-retired opponent. I think he will be able to give Aldo trouble with his relentless grappling, especially later in the fight, and take home a decision win.

Prediction: Bautista by Decision

## Kayla Harrison -833 vs. Ketlen Viera +550

The winner of this pivotal matchup at Bantamweight will likely be next in line to fight for the title. Kayla Harrison looks to make another statement after dominating Holly Holm in her UFC debut with her strong grappling base, which she showed by dominating the PFL for years. Ketlen Viera comes into this after having won three of her last four, with the only loss coming to the champion in Raquel Pennington by a split decision, having shown a good ground game and solid boxing at times.

As tempting as the price is, I can't pick against Harrison here. She will have a big edge on the ground and will likely hold top position until the final bell or she finds a finish.

Prediction: Harrison by 2nd Round TKO

## Roman Dolidze +135 vs. Kevin Holland -167

Middleweight finishers face off in this must-see clash. Roman Dolidze returns to Middleweight after a quick trip to take on Anthony Smith up at Light Heavyweight during the summer. He is a hard-hitting puncher who doesn't throw much volume, but he also has a tricky submission game if the fight goes to the ground. Kevin Holland remains active here, facing another tough challenge. He has been inconsistent with his showings, sometimes being controlled on the ground and taking significant strikes with little defense, although he does have good hands and a solid submission game.

I lean Dolidze here as he can land the bigger shots on the feet, get the fight to the ground, and control things from there, as Holland has struggled to wrestle up at this weight.

Prediction: Dolidze by Decision

## Stephen Thompson +160 vs. Joaquin Buckley -200

This is a fun matchup between two exciting ranked fighters at Welterweight. Stephen Thompson has long been known as one of the best strikers in the UFC with his unique karate style, although he has struggled with grappling in the later stages of his career, having lost three of his last four due to being outgrappled. Joaquin Buckley has quickly become a name to watch at this weight, having won his first four fights since moving down from Middleweight, showing dangerous striking and mixing in some wrestling with strong ground and pound.

I'll pick Thompson here, but this one is very tough to call. Generally, I would take the younger fighter with Buckley's wrestling upside, but I feel his blitzing striking style may get him countered by the very experienced Wonderboy Thompson.

Prediction: Thompson by Decision

## Marina Rodriguez +141 vs. Iasmin Lucindo -175

Big test here for a fast-rising prospect at Strawweight. Marina Rodriguez is a high-volume kickboxer with a long reach, although she reacts poorly to damage coming her way, as that was the difference in a close fight with Jessica Andrade earlier this year, and she can be controlled on the ground as was the case against Virna Jandiroba. Iasmin Lucindo has burst onto the scene with several dominant wins already at the early age of twenty-two, having shown powerful striking and a strong ground attack.

I'm taking Lucindo here as I see her as the more powerful and well-rounded fighter who is still improving, while Rodriguez has likely peaked.

Prediction: Lucindo by Decision

## Ihor Potieria +290 vs. Cesar Almeida -385

All-action Middleweights go head-to-head in this exciting matchup. Ihor Potieria is a wild-style striker who has shown a willingness to fight anyone anytime, although he has not had much success in those fights, having won just one of his last four, with all three losses ending inside two rounds. Cesar Almeida is a very experienced kickboxer with dangerous power on the feet, although his wrestling was exposed in his last fight, with Roman Kopylov taking him down and holding him there whenever he wanted.

I'll pick Almeida, as he will have a massive striking advantage, and Potieria has struggled against solid competition.

Prediction: Almeida by 1st Round KO

## Alexander Hernandez -213 vs. Austin Hubbard +170

Lightweights are looking to get back into the win column as they square off in this one. Alexander Hernandez was once a top prospect with his strong wrestling and big punching power, although after some ups and downs, he has found himself moving around in weight and struggling to string together wins. He is back at Lightweight here, where he has looked better, in my opinion which is an encouraging sign. Austin Hubbard is a veteran striker on his second UFC run here who comes into this one off a very controversial decision win over Michal Figlak.

I lean towards Hernandez as he is the more dangerous fighter with a better wrestling game, although his cardio is a concern, especially at altitude.

Prediction: Hernandez by Decision

## Carla Esparza +142 vs. Tecia Pennington -175

The final fight in a storied career goes down here at Strawweight. Carla Esparza makes her final walk here as a two-time champion, having used her wrestling game to overcome a lack of size and power to claim the title. It is worth noting that she has taken a long time away since her last fight to give birth to her child. Tecia Pennington is an experienced striker who comes in having lost two straight very close decisions against high-level grapplers, both of which easily could've gone her way as she was mostly able to keep both fights standing and display a clear advantage on the feet.

I'm going with Pennington here. She has been able to keep it standing in her last two against young contenders in their prime, so I expect she will be able to do the same against Esparza at this stage of her career and have an even bigger striking advantage than she is used to. 

Prediction: Pennington by Decision

## Ovince St.Preux +206 vs. Ryan Spann -241

Light Heavyweights look to finally settle it here after a late cancelation postponed this fight from last month. Ovince St. Preux is a tricky veteran who has hung around with his toughness, striking, and submission game, often leaving opponents wondering what happened. Ryan Spann is a dangerous finisher with good boxing and strong wrestling, although his durability is a concern as he takes punches poorly and struggles to recover.

I have my concerns with Spann, but he is the much younger and more dangerous fighter here, and I see him getting an early finish by overwhelming OSP with power shots.

Prediction: Spann by 1st Round TKO

## Tim Means -200 vs. Court McGee +170

Veteran Welterweights open the card in what should be a fun scrap. Tim Means is a brawler who brings it every time he fights, although he is forty years old and has lost four of his last five, leaving questions about how much is left in the tank. Court McGee is a solid wrestler who has been in the UFC for over a decade, although his time is nearly up as he has lost three straight, including two first-round knockouts, and he has not scored a finish of his own since 2010.

I'll pick Means here as I see him doing the damage and avoiding McGee's wrestling, although, at this price, this fight is an easy pass from a betting perspective with McGee's wrestling upside.

Prediction: Means by Decision

Geoff Neal