UFC 300 Odds Breakdown

UFC 300 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
April 07, 2024|

It's finally fight week for one of the biggest cards in the sport's history. UFC 300 is this Saturday, April 13th, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. I went over every fight on the card, from Deiveson Figueiredo -285 taking on former champion Cody Garbrandt +245 at Bantamweight to kick off the card to Alex Pereira -145 defending his Light Heavyweight title against Jamahal Hill +125, who never lost the belt in the octagon, in the main event, I covered every fight so let's get into it.

Odds provided by BetOnline.ag accurate as of 4/5/2024 1:30 PM EST

Alex Pereira -145 vs. Jamahal Hill +125

The highly anticipated Light Heavyweight main event will feature two great champions going head-to-head in a matchup where a knockout is expected by many. Alex Pereira is one of the scariest fighters in the sport's history. He has incredibly high-level kickboxing and power in his strikes like we have never seen before. His signature left hook and calf kick are his best weapons and helped him secure title wins over Israel Adesanya and Jiri Prochazka. Jamahal Hill returns from an Achilles injury that forced him to step away for over a year after his dominant title win over Pereira's good friend and training partner Glover Teixeira, where he showed the level of his striking in a five-round masterclass that saw him set records for strikes landed. The time off and the injury are a concern, but his power is deadly, as he has been proving since his breakout knockout over Jimmy Crute.

This is a very close matchup, but I lean towards Pereira. Hill is coming off a tough injury, and Pereira is the much more experienced striker in what will be a standup fight.

Pick: Pereira


Weili Zhang -380 vs. Xionan Yan +315

It will be a historic moment for Chinese MMA as these two Strawweights compete in the first title fight featuring two fighters from China in the history of the UFC. Weili Zhang is a machine with incredibly powerful and high-volume striking, along with a developing ground game that she showed in her recent wins over Carla Esparza and Amanda Lemos, where she spent much of those fights in a dominant position on the ground doing damage. She has shown her striking prowess several times with her quick title-winning knockout over Jessica Andrade and her spinning-back fist victory over Joanna Jedrzejczyk in their rematch. Xionan Yan earned her first title opportunity with her dangerous and technical striking attack that helped her knockout Jessica Andrade and dominate Mackenzie Dern over five rounds. Her ground game is still a slight question mark as she struggled on her back against Carla Esparza but was able to defend in bad positions against Mackenzie Dern more recently.

I like Zhang here as she has proven to be a much more well-rounded martial artist. Although Yan is a tough test, I feel Zhang will be able to strike with her and use her massive grappling advantage when she needs to.

Pick: Zhang

Justin Gaethje -200 vs. Max Holloway +170

The BMF title will be defended for the first time in this fan's dream of a matchup at Lightweight. Justin Gaethje has earned the BMF title with his style more than anyone else, as he is a dangerous striker who is not afraid to get into a firefight if necessary. He has taken a lot of damage over his career, which is a concern, but with him having managed himself well, it is not likely to be an issue just yet. Max Holloway will move up in weight here to make this matchup happen for the fans, although he has fought at Lightweight before in a back-and-forth war against Dustin Poirier, where he came up short but proved he could hang with the Lightweights. He is known for his cardio and volume, with an insane output that often breaks his opponents, who have thus far been unable to break him and his iron chin.

I'll go with Gaethje here, as he will be landing the harder shots, and Holloway has been susceptible to leg kicks in the past.

Pick: Gaethje


Charles Oliveira +190 vs. Arman Tsarukyan -225

When Dana Whtie announced this fight, he called it a number one contender at Lightweight, meaning the winner would be next in line for a shot at Islam Makhachev's title. Charles Oliveira is on a mission to reclaim his lightweight throne with his all-offense style, which includes a wide variety of kickboxing attacks and one of the most dangerous submission games in the sport. He is very willing to take damage, having been dropped in four of his last five fights, although many opponents don't follow him to the ground because of his submission game. Still, Islam Makhachev tested his ground game and was able to score a submission of his own. Arman Tsarukyan is a phenomenal athlete with a top-tier wrestling game and a rapidly developing striking attack that he showed off in his quick knockout against Beneil Dariush. Joaquim Silva caught him in the striking, although he survived to come back to win with his signature ground and pound, which also helped him defeat Joel Alvarez.

I've got Tsarukyan here, as he will get on top with his wrestling game and do enough damage to either get a finish or win a decision.

Pick: Tsarukyan

Bo Nickal -2400 vs. Cody Brundage +1100

One of the most hyped prospects in the sport is set for his next test to open the main card at Middleweight. Bo Nickal is a highly credentialed college wrestler who has taken the MMA world by storm with several quick knockouts and submissions that have propelled him to this spotlight so early in his career. He remains untested, having barely been hit and never gone late in a fight, which is something to note when looking at this size as a favorite. Cody Brundage is a solid wrestler with power in his hands, although his wins have come against rather low-level competition. He was dominantly outwrestled by Sedriques Dumas, which is a huge red flag.

Nickal will make quick work of this one, as he has already proven he can dominate fighters on the level of Brundage, who is outmatched.

Pick: Nickal


Jiri Prochazka +110 vs. Aleksandar Rakic -130

Light Heavyweight striking specialist will test their skills against one another in this can't-miss featured prelim. Jiri Prochazka is a wild and unpredictable striker with devastating power and a willingness to trade strikes with anyone. He is capable of pushing an an insane pace like he did in his victory over Dominick Reyes, and he can also find other ways to win, like his last-minute choke over Glover Teixeira to claim the title. Aleksandar Rakic is an explosive kickboxer with highlight knockouts on his resume who returns from a nearly two-year layoff here. He has also shown a good ground game against Jan Blachowicz and the ability to follow a game plan against Thiago Santos.

I lean towards Prochazka as he will be the fighter with the higher output, and it is tough to know how Rakic will return from his injury.

Pick: Prochzaka

Calvin Kattar +120 vs. Aljamain Sterling -140

This clash of styles at Featherweight sees a former champion moving up in weight to take on a big puncher. Calvin Kattar is a very clean boxer who has rounded out his game, as he showed with his masterful performance against Giga Chikadze. He is coming in off a year and a half layoff after an injury against Arnold Allen, which is something to note. Aljamain Sterling moves up in weight here after defending the Bantamweight title more times than anyone using his smothering grappling game that earned him the belt and the nickname "the human backpack." His last fight was a loss to Sean O'Malley, where he was knocked out for just the second time in his career.

I'll pick Sterling here; he is the best grappler Kattar has faced and could give him real trouble if he can get on the back early like he was with Cory Sandhagen.

Pick: Sterling


Holly Holm +366 vs. Kayla Harrison -466

A new face takes on a former champion in this intriguing Bantamweight clash. Holly Holm is back again, looking to make another run to reclaim the title that she won many years ago with her viral knockout of Ronda Rousey. She has been near the top of the division for many years, using her top-tier kickboxing and solid wrestling. Kayla Harrison makes her debut here, having been a champion several times in the PFL, although she didn't face the best competition and lost when tested by Larissa Pacheco. Her Olympic Judo background makes her ground game very difficult, although that was at a higher weight as she has never fought at Bantamweight before.

Harrison should be able to win with her wrestling edge, but at this price tag, I have to pass, especially with her coming down in weight.

Pick: Harrison

Sodiq Yusuff +115 vs. Diego Lopes -135

Must-see action is expected as these two Featherweights, known for putting on a show, face off. Sodiq Yusuff has proven himself a solid striker who belongs in the rankings of this tough division. He's coming off a tough five-round loss to Edson Barboza, where he was outstruck but showed his toughness and dangerous power early. Diego Lopes is a wild finisher with a phenomenal submission game and striking that he used to knock out Pat Sabatini in his last fight. He has had several losses outside the UFC that raise questions about his ability to compete consistently at the highest level.

I like Yusuff here as the underdog. He is a much more proven fighter and has a clear advantage in striking.

Pick: Yusuff


Jalin Turner -214 vs. Renato Moicano +184

Up-and-coming Lightweights look to continue their rise here. Jalin Turner is a massive guy for the division, and he has enormous power in his strikes and an opportunistic submission game. He's shown his finishing ability repeatedly, although he has also been outwrestled by Matt Frevola and Dan Hooker. Renato Moicano has made some headlines with his fun post-fight interviews, but he earns those interviews by winning with his grappling and fight IQ. He reacts poorly to damage, which is a worry when he faces any good striker.

I'll go with Turner to get a knockout win here. His striking advantage is massive, and he can defend enough grappling to get the job done.

Pick: Turner

Jessica Andrade -120 vs. Marina Rodriguez +100

Strawweight strikers will look to move into the title conversation. Jessica Andrade is a short but powerful fighter, although she has not looked her best lately, with rough performances against Erin Blanchfield and Xioanan Yan. Still, she can finish fights with her hands, as she proved by finishing Mackenzie Dern. Marina Rodriguez is a high-paced kickboxer with a fun style and a good chin. She struggles in the grappling as when put on her back; she can be held there like she was against Virna Jandiroba.

I've got Rodriguez here. I give her a significant edge in striking because she is the more durable, higher-output fighter, and I don't expect enough grappling from Andrade to get the win.

Pick: Rodriguez


Bobby Green -190 vs. Jim Miller +165

Veteran fan favorites square off in this fantastic clash of styles at Lightweight. Bobby Green has competed with the best, using his hands-down boxing style, which works because of his speed and head movement. He enters this off a brutal knockout loss against Jalin Turner, where he was caught early, which is a concern as that is several knockouts in the last few years for Green. Jim Miller had to be on this card with him being such a veteran that he has competed and won on both UFC 100 and 200. He is gritty and well-rounded, with great takedown, submission game, and dangerous hands.

I like Miller as the underdog here. He can keep the striking close and has the grappling upside.

Pick: Miller

Deiveson Figueiredo -285 vs. Cody Garbrandt +245

The card will open with two former champions known for their violent styles at Bantamweight. Deiveson Figueiredo is a dangerous and uniquely talented mixed martial artist with elite counter-striking and the ability to mix in the ground game to separate himself. His power translated well in his debut at this weight, with him hurting Rob Font multiple times in an impressive decision victory. Cody Garbrandt is a former champion at this weight, having shown incredible speed and power, although his defense has always been an issue, with him having been knocked out many times. He has looked good in recent wins, but they were not the highest-level opponents in the unranked Brian Kelleher and Trevin Jones.

Figueiredo deserves this steep price tag, and I fully expect him to cover it with a finish over Garbrandt, who has seen his best days.

Pick: Figueiredo


DougLasVegasBets.net Plays

Arman Tsarukyan -210

Sodiq Yusuff +110

Marina Rodriguez -110

Deiveson Figueiredo + Weili Zhang -150

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