UFC 311 Odds Breakdown

UFC 311 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
January 14, 2025|
4

The UFC is back on pay-per-view for the first time this year this weekend from the Intuit Dome in Los Angeles, California. It is headlined by a Lightweight rematch years in the making, as champion Islam Makhachev takes on Arman Tsarukyan over five years after their first meeting. Also in the co-main event, Merab Dvalishvili will make the first defense of his Bantamweight title against the undefeated Umar Nurmagomedov. I went over that matchup and every other fight on this stacked card to give my predictions and best bets, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 1/13/2025

Islam Makhachev -400 vs. Arman Tsarukyan +300

The main event is the Lightweight title bout featuring two of the most talented grapplers in the division. Islam Makhachev has become a dominant champion but that has not stopped him from making improvements to his game as he continues to show more evolution in his striking with each outing while still having one of the best ground games in all of the UFC. Arman Tsarukyan has worked his way back from the debut loss to Makhachev to prove he is one of the best in the world having used his violent ground and pound to take out many of the best in the division including the dangerous Joel Alvarez, Charles Oliveira, and Beneil Dariush.

This is going to look much different from the first time these two fought with both men having rounded out their skills tremendously but in the end, I see a similar result taking place as Makhachev still has the wrestling advantage and has shown much more polished striking.

Prediction: Makhachev by Decision

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Merab Dvalishvili +255 vs. Umar Nurmagomedov -333

This heated Bantamweight title clash has already arrived with little time since the announcement, but still enough time to create an interesting build-up. Merab Dvalishvili is a cardio machine with relentless wrestling that he uses to exhaust his opponents and overwhelm them over five rounds. Umar Nurmagomedov is a unique talent with solid striking behind a strong kicking game; still, his best attribute remains his wrestling, which he used to control a tough to hold down Cory Sandhagen for five rounds in his last matchup.

I'm taking Nurmagomedov here as he is just too skilled on the ground for Dvalishvili to sustain enough success grappling to get a decision here and the striking also favors Nurmagomedov.

Prediction: Nurmagomedov by Decision

Jiri Prochazka -110 vs. Jamahal Hill -111

Knockout artists collide in this must-see Light Heavyweight matchup between former champions. Jiri Prochazka is an awkward but powerful striker with little regard for defense, although he has shown a great chin at times, and his power has proven to be the great equalizer as it was too much for Aleksandar Rakic, who seemed comfortably ahead to that point in the fight. Jamahal Hill is a big striker with real one-punch power in his hands that he can set up with a solid kicking game and the ability to keep a high pace throughout the fight, as he showed in his title-winning effort against Glover Teixeira.

I like Hill here as he is the more defensively responsible fighter with the power to end this early if Prochazka hasn't learned to block punches with something other than his face yet.

Prediction: Hill by 1st Round KO

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Beneil Dariush +160 vs. Renato Moicano -196

Top-ranked Lightweight grapplers square off in this matchup, and neither man can afford to lose. Beneil Dariush has been a dark horse in the division for a long time, and he is looking to regain his form here after being out over a year coming off two knockout losses, although he remains a dangerous striker himself with a very credentialed ground game. Renato Moicano has become a fan favorite throughout his four-fight winning streak, which has seen him use his ground game to control several solid opponents and do real work to finish the fight once taking the top position, earning finishes in three of those wins, although with three knockout losses and some other close calls, his durability remains a concern.

This is a good stylistic matchup for Dariush so I'll bet him as the underdog here with Moicano being little threat to land another knockout and the grappling being a difficult path against someone who is the level of Dariush on the ground.

Prediction: Dariush by 1st Round KO

Kevin Holland -111 vs. Reinier de Ridder -110

An interesting stylistic matchup here at Middleweight opens our main card. Kevin Holland is a fun and dangerous striker with solid power in his hands and an ability to find awkward finishes, although he has struggled when facing strong grapplers, having been held on his back or submitted several times. Reinier de Ridder came back to win a tough UFC debut against Gerald Meerschaert, where he showed his grit and dangerous submission game as he was able to tap out one of the better grapplers in the division.

I'll go with RDR here as Holland has consistently struggled with grapplers and has not made much effort to fix that weakness in his game to this point leading me to believe RDR will have success getting this fight to the floor and keeping it there.

Prediction: de Ridder by Decision

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Payton Talbott -1429 vs. Raoni Barcelos +750

One of the most hyped prospects in the sport takes on his toughest test yet here at Bantamweight. Payton Talbott has caught the attention of the entire MMA world, having shown the patience of a veteran through just nine fights, having finished seven in the second or third round. Raoni Barcelos is a tough veteran with solid striking and the ability to submit his opponent if given the opportunity, as he was in his last fight against Christian Quinonez, although his age and durability are both concerning at this point in his career.

Despite the tempting price on the other side, I'm still picking Talbott, and to be more specific, I expect him to take his time as he usually does to get a 2nd or 3rd round knockout finish.

Prediction: Talbott by 3rd Round TKO

Jailton Almeida -435 vs. Serghei Spivac +320

Heavyweight grapplers go head to head here in this intriguing prelim clash. Jailton Almeida is a freak athlete with dominant skills on the ground that he has used to secure five first-round finishes in the UFC, including his last win, where he destroyed Alexandr Romanov. Serghei Spivac is a solid wrestler who has finished four of his last five opponents on the ground, although his durability is suspect with three knockout losses in the UFC, and he has given up top time to mediocre grapplers before.

I see Almeida making quick work of this matchup, as his skills on the ground are going to be far too much for Spivac to deal with.

Prediction: Almeida by 1st Round Submission

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Grant Dawson -294 vs. Diego Ferreira +230

Fun matchup here between skilled Lightweight grapplers. Grant Dawson is a very strong grappler with great control, although he hasn't shown much high-level striking, and his chin is a concern, with him having been knocked out very quickly multiple times. Diego Ferreira is a crafty veteran with a solid ground game and dangerous striking that he used to get a highlight knockout against Michael Johnson.

I'll pick Dawson here as I think he will be able to secure and hold top position long enough to wear down Ferreira although at these odds this fight is a pass from a betting perspective.

Prediction: Dawson by 3rd Round TKO

Karol Rosa -217 vs. Ailin Perez +175

Bantamweights will look to enter the contender conversation with a big win in this one. Karol Rosa is a solid striker who has consistently competed with tough competition over her UFC run. Ailin Perez is a solid wrestler, although she struggles when she doesn't have a clear advantage on the ground.

I've got Rosa here as she is the much better striker who has competed against much tougher competition over her UFC run. I see her keeping this at range and landing the more effective strikes to win a decision.

Prediction: Rosa by Decision

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Rinya Nakamura -476 vs. Muin Gafurov +350

Another test here for an undefeated prospect at Bantamweight. Rinya Nakamura is another undefeated prospect on this card and he has maintained that record with a mix of a very strong wrestling base and knockout power in his hands. Muin Gafurov comes into this off his first UFC win where he beat Kyung Ho Kang, although he still showed some issues with his grappling that better opposition can expose.

This should be another win for Nakamura as he has a massive advantage in wrestling that he can use to dominate this matchup.

Prediction: Nakamura by Decision

Ricky Turcios +270 vs. Benardo Sopaj -357

Two talented Bantamweights who came into the UFC with high hopes look to get things on track here. Ricky Turcios has struggled to find his footing in the UFC since winning The Ultimate Fighter several years ago, he is a high-volume striker with a decent ground game but he lacks much finishing ability. Benardo Sopaj returns looking to bounce back from a wild debut where he was on the wrong end of a brutal knockout against Vinicius Oliveira after a hard-fought back-and-forth battle.

There was a lot to like about Sopaj in his debut so I'll pick him here but I would caution against laying this price based on a losing performance.

Prediction: Sopaj by Decision

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Tagir Ulanbekov -323 vs. Clayton Carpenter +250

Fantastic matchup opens the card here at Flyweight. Tagir Ulanbekov is a very tall fighter for the division, which may have led to him missing weight the last time he was supposed to compete, although when he does make it to the octagon he is a dangerous grappler who uses his length to secure nasty chokes. Clayton Carpenter is a young and undefeated prospect who uses a smothering ground game and sneaky powerful striking to dominate or often finish his opponents.

I'll go with Carpenter as the underdog here as his skills are the ground are legit and he can give Ulanbekov real trouble there or force a striking match where he is the faster and harder hitter.

Prediction: Carpenter by Decision

Best Bets

Jamahal Hill MoneyLine -105

Beneil Dariush MoneyLine +200

Reiner de Ridder MoneyLine +100

Clayton Carpenter MoneyLine +225

Jailton Almeida + Umar Nurmagomedov Parlay -135

Rinya Nakamura + Karol Rosa Parlay +102