UFC 315 Odds Breakdown

UFC 315 Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
May 07, 2025|
16

The UFC is back on PPV this weekend, headlined by a pair of title fights with Belal Muhammad defending his Welterweight title against Jack Della Maddalena and Valentina Shevchenko defending her Flyweight belt against Manon Fiorot. It all goes down from the Bell Center in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, and I went over every fight on the card to give my predictions, including the Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by Duelbits accurate as of 5/7/2025

Belal Muhammad -208 vs. Jack Della Maddalena +165

The Welterweight title is on the line in this main event matchup. Belal Muhammad is a pressure fighter with top-tier wrestling, cardio, and solid boxing, although he lacks much finishing threat, having not dropped anyone in the UFC yet. Jack Della Maddalena is a boxer with solid combination punching and good killer instinct, but his grappling is a major concern, with him having given little resistance when facing takedown attempts from Bassil Hafez and Gilbert Burns.

This is a tough fight to call, but I'll pick JDM at these odds as he has a few key factors on his side, mainly age and finishing upside. His layoff and injury are concerning, but Muhammad has also only fought once in the last two years and is coming off an injury of his own.

Prediction: Della Maddalena by 2nd Round TKO

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Valentina Shevchkenko +112 vs. Manon Fiorot -137

This much anticipated Flyweight title fight goes down here in the co-main event. Valentina Shevchenko is a well-rounded fighting machine with a kickboxing background that shows with the speed in her kicks and a wrestling game that she used to dominate Alexa Grasso, although her age is becoming a concern with her now being thirty-seven and having been actively fighting for a very long time. Manon Fiorot has long been touted as a future champion by many, including myself, in large part due to her skillful kickboxing and incredible strength for the division, which has helped her earn wins over big names like Erin Blanchfield and Rose Namajunas.

I have always believed that Fiorot would be a champion, and I feel this is the day she does it. Her striking speed and physicality in the grappling give her an edge here over a slowing Shevchenko, which I believe she will use to take a decision win.

Prediction: Fiorot by Decision

Jose Aldo -208 vs. Aiemann Zahabi +170

A legend returns against a veteran making a strong run at Bantamweight. Jose Aldo is a powerful and technical striker with incredible boxing and strong low kicks, although he has been held against the cage a lot in recent matchups with Merab Dvalishvili and Mario Bautista. Aiemann Zahabi is a good striker with a very sharp right hand who comes in having his last five fights, including a win over Pedro Munhoz and two first-round knockouts.

I'll go with Aldo here, as I see his strikes landing with much more impact in what will be a back-and-forth striking match.

Prediction: Aldo by Decision

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Alexa Grasso +190 vs. Natalia Silva -238

Top contenders square off at Flyweight here, just before the title is on the line. Alexa Grasso is a former champion who got there using her technical boxing skills and dangerous submission game. Natalia Silva is a slick kickboxer who comes in with six straight wins to start her UFC career, including wins over contenders Jessica Andrade and Jasmine Jasudavicius.

I like Silva to win a decision here. Her movement and speed could give Grasso trouble tracking her down to fire-off combinations as Silva picks her apart to win the minutes.

Prediction: Silva by Decision

Benoit Saint-Denis -1111 vs. Kyle Prepolec +640

A short-notice replacement comes in to keep a fun Lightweight matchup on the card. Benoit Saint-Denis is an offense finisher with good power in his hands and a smothering grappling attack; the concern is his defense, as he is very hittable and was controlled by Renato Moicano. Kyle Prepolec begins his second UFC run here, and he is a dangerous striker coming in off three straight first-round knockout victories, although they were against lower-level opponents.

Saint-Denis should get back in the win column with a finish here, as he has a massive advantage on the ground.

Prediction: Saint-Denis by 1st Round Submission

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Marc-Andre Barriault -152 vs. Bruno Silva +123

Veteran Middleweight brawlers go head to head in this prelim matchup. Marc-Andre Barriault is a tough pressure fighter with solid boxing, although he comes in having lost three straight, with the last two being first-round knockouts. Bruno Silva is a durable striker with solid knockout power, although, with age, he has significantly slowed down.

I like Barriault in this one, as he will be the much higher-output fighter who I believe has more left in the tank.

Prediction: Barriault by Decision

Mike Malott -196 vs. Charles Radtke +160

Finishers square off in what should be a fun one at Welterweight. Mike Malott is a strong grappler with solid striking, although I have some concerns about his durability after his late collapse against Neil Magny. Charles Radtke is a decent boxer with solid power, and he showed that when he knocked out Gilbert Urbina and Matthew Semelsberger, but he lacks much of a ground game to speak of.

I've got Malott to win by submission here, as he has a much more proven ground game, and Radtke has not faced anyone with his submission skills before.

Prediction: Malott by 1st Round Submission

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Jessica Andrade +240 vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius -313

Flyweight contenders collide in this high-stakes prelim clash. Jessica Andrade is a former champion at Strawweight, with dangerous power in her striking, although she struggles when facing strong grapplers. Jasmine Jasudavicius is a tough, high-paced grappler with good submissions and ground and pound that she uses to wear down her opponents.

I really like Jasudavicius in this matchup and believe she can get a late finish here if she uses her usual style of grappling and pace, which is a nightmare for Andrade, especially at this stage of her career.

Prediction: Jasudavicius by 3rd Round Submission

Navajo Stirling -286 vs. Ivan Erslan +220

Prospects square off here early on the card at Light Heavyweight. Navajo Stirling is an up-and-coming striker with an undefeated record after six fights, including a UFC debut win over Tuco Tokkos. Ivan Erslan is a big puncher who comes in with a lot of first-round finishes on his record, although he often struggles when extended past the first five minutes.

I'll pick Stirling here as he is defensively responsible enough to avoid the big shot early, which means he will likely take over in the later rounds.

Prediction: Stirling by 3rd Round TKO

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Modestas Bukauskas -110 vs. Ion Cutelaba -111

Exciting Light Heavyweight finishers go head to head in this must-see matchup. Modestas Bukauskas is a solid kickboxer who has won four of his five fights since returning to the UFC, including two straight finishes. Ion Cutelaba is an ultra-aggressive finisher with big power in his wild boxing and a surprisingly technical grappling attack that he used to finish Ibo Aslan in the first round of his last fight.

I lean towards Cutelaba as he is the more dangerous striker with the grappling upside.

Prediction: Cutelaba by 1st Round KO

Daniel Santos +101 vs. Jeong Yeong Lee -123

Short-notice replacement steps in to save a fight here at Featherweight. Daniel Santos is an all-action fighter, as you would expect with him coming from the Chute Boxe gym in Brazil. Jeong Yeong Lee is a tough brawler willing to stand and trade, but he also showed some decent grappling skills in his win over Blake Bilder.

I'll go with Santos in this one as I feel he is the more dangerous of the two in a fight where both men will be landing.

Prediction: Santos by 2nd Round TKO

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Brad Katona +139 vs. Bekzat Almakhan -172

Bantamweights are looking to move up through the deep division clash in this one. Brad Katona remains the only two-time winner of The Ultimate Fighter, but now he is a veteran with a well-rounded game. Bekzat Almakhan returns from a long layoff here following his short-notice bout, where he gave Umar Nurmagomedov an early scare with a good right hand before being outwrestled to a decision loss.

I've got Katona in this one, as he is the much more experienced and well-rounded fighter with durability that I trust, as he has never been finished. With that, Brad Katona MoneyLine is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Katona by Decision (Best Bet)