UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Odds Breakdown

UFC Fight Night: Hill vs. Rountree Odds Breakdown

Douglas Vegas Bets|
June 16, 2025|
4

The UFC heads to Azerbaijan for the first time this weekend as former Light Heavyweight Champion Jamahal Hill takes on Khalil Rountree Jr. in the main event from the Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. I went over every fight on the card to give my predictions, including my Underdog Best Bet of the Week, so let's get into it.

Odds provided by DuelBits accurate as of 6/16/2025

Jamahal Hill +128 vs. Khalil Rountree -156

Light Heavyweights are looking to get their names back into the title picture square off in this big main event. Jamahal Hill is a big puncher who throws a lot of offense with little regard for defense, which has cost him in recent fights but has also helped him dominate opponents when he gets ahead early or lands a finishing blow. Khalil Rountree is a violent striker with solid power and somewhat low volume, coming in off a war with Alex Pereira, where he took a lot of damage but also showcased his skills.

I love Hill in this spot because he is the much higher-volume guy with more five-round experience and success fighting top-level competition, along with having a solid reach advantage. With that, Jamahal Hill Moneyline is this week's Underdog Best Bet of the Week.

Prediction: Hill by 1st Round KO (Best Bet)

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Rafael Fiziev -109 vs. Ignacio Bahamondes -112

Finishers face off in this electric Lightweight co-main event. Rafael Fiziev is a lightning-fast striker with a dangerous arsenal of weapons; however, his cardio has consistently been a problem, as he often struggles when fights reach the third round. Ignacio Bahamondes is a tall kickboxer who comes in having finished his last three opponents in the first round, showcasing both knockout and submission skills early, although cardio is not a concern, as evidenced by his ability to push the pace, as seen in his late finish against Roosevelt Roberts.

I like Bahamondes in this one, as he has a size advantage, better cardio, and a more dangerous ground game, while Fiziev is turning around rather quickly after taking a lot of damage against Justin Gaethje.

Prediction: Bahamondes by Decision

Curtis Blaydes -294 vs. Rizvan Kuniev +225

This matchup is now booked for the third time at Heavyweight as these two look to finally settle things in the octagon. Curtis Blaydes is a very strong wrestler with solid boxing, although his durability has cost him several times when he has faced powerful opponents like Tom Aspinall, Derrick Lewis, and Sergei Pavlovich. Rizvan Kuniev is a decent wrestler who makes his debut here following an impressive run outside of the promotion, including a win over former PFL champ Renan Ferreira, which was later overturned to a no-contest.

I'll pick Blaydes here as he has proven to be a top contender in the division, having only lost to the biggest punchers in the sport, which I don't believe Kuniev is.

Prediction: Blaydes by 3rd Round TKO

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Myktybek Orolbai -169 vs. Tofiq Musayev +138

Exciting Lightweights collide in this can't-miss matchup. Myktykbek Orolbai is a durable and well-rounded fighter who pushes a hard pace and has shown he can hurt opponents on the feet and on the ground, although his striking defense isn't great, often leaving him open to big shots. Tofiq Musayev makes his UFC debut here as a dangerous knockout puncher whose last five fights have all ended inside the distance, showcasing his powerful striking, although he can be low-output looking for big shots.

I lean towards Orolbai, as he is going to be pushing the pace, has the grappling advantage, and has never been finished. However, his defense against Musayev's power gives me hesitation in picking this one.

Prediction: Orolbai by 2nd Round Submission

Nazim Sadykhov -435 vs. Nikolas Motta +330

Dangerous finishers are pitted against one another in this fun, Lightweight clash. Nazim Sadykhov is an extremely durable and powerful fighter with hard-hitting striking that causes visible damage to his opponents and a slick submission game that he used to finish Terrance McKinney. Nikolas Motta is a tough veteran with solid power in his hands, as he showed in his big upset win over Tom Nolan last year, where he finished him in the first round.

Sadykhov is likely to secure another finish in this one, as it is a relative step down from his previous competition, and he has a clear advantage on the ground while also being the more durable and powerful striker.

Prediction: Sadykhov by 3rd Round Submission

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Muhammad Naimov -227 vs. Bogdan Grad +180

Featherweights open the main card with this fun matchup. Muhammad Naimov is a stocky fighter with powerful punches, which has helped him win four of his first five UFC fights, including an impressive win over Nathaniel Wood. Bogdan Grad is a gritty and dangerous striker who weathered an early storm to take over and get the finish in his debut against Lucas Alexander.

I'm picking Naimov here as he is slightly better in every area, but mostly in terms of punching power and durability, which I believe will lead to a knockout victory.

Prediction: Naimov by 2nd Round TKO

Seokhyeon Ko +400 vs. Oban Elliott -588

After a late swap of opponents, these Welterweights will square off in the featured prelim. Seokhyeon Ko debuts off Dana White's Contender Series, where he showed solid boxing skills early and some wrestling late, although he has been finished by several regional opponents, which is concerning. Oban Elliott looks to keep rolling here as he comes into this one, having won his first three UFC fights, including an impressive finish last time out where he became the first man to knockout Bassil Hafez.

At these odds, I have to go with Ko, as Oban Elliott hasn't shown me anything to indicate he is worth this kind of price tag, given that he has also been hurt and finished by lower-level opposition before the UFC, and Ko has good hands leading me to believe he is a very live dog here.

Prediction: Ko by 2nd Round TKO

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Ismail Naurdiev +160 vs. Jun Yong Park -200

Middleweight veterans looking to build momentum are matched up in this one. Ismail Naurdiev continues his second stint with the UFC here after getting a win over Bruno Silva his last time out, where he showed an aggressive mix of kicks and wrestling to grind out the win. Jun Yong Park is a well-rounded fighter who has proven his ability to compete with high-level opponents, such as Brad Tavares, and finish lower-level competition, as evidenced by his recent run of three straight submissions.

I've got Park in this one, as he has proven himself to be a level higher and has a significant grappling advantage.

Prediction: Park by 3rd Round TKO

Darya Zheleznyakova +205 vs. Melissa Mullins -263

Bantamweights who fought several years ago outside of the UFC will now compete here again on the biggest stage. Darya Zheleznyakova is a good kickboxer who had a lot of striking success early in the first fight, although her grappling remains an issue, as she lost her UFC debut by first-round submission. Melissa Mullins is a grappler with a strong top game that has helped her win two of her first three UFC fights, including a ground-and-pound finish in her last outing, although her striking defense has been an issue.

The first fight didn't go her way, but at these odds, I'll take Zheleznyakova as she proved to have a massive advantage in the striking the first time these two fought, and if Mullins doesn't get the takedown early again, she could get finished this time around.

Prediction: Zheleznyakova by 1st Round TKO

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Irina Alekseeva -270 vs. Klaudia Sygula +210

Bantamweights looking to bounce back from losses square off in this prelim matchup. Irina Alekseeva is a solid grappler with a judo base and a tricky submission game, which she showed in her debut win over Stephanie Egger, where she submitted her in the first round. Klaudia Sygula is a finisher with some submission skills and several knockouts on her resume, although when facing any decent opposition, she has struggled badly, having been finished on the ground in both her losses.

I'll go with Alekseeva to utilize her grappling to dominate this matchup, as Sygula has shown she can't compete with skilled grapplers.

Prediction: Alekseeva by 1st Round Submission

Tagir Ulanbekov -370 vs. Azat Maksum +275

Short-notice replacement steps in for this one at Flyweight. Tagir Ulanbekov is a big and well-rounded fighter for the division, coming in having won three straight, including an impressive performance against previously unbeaten Clayton Carpenter. Azat Maksum is a dangerous finisher who showed his power early last time out with a big knockdown against Charles Johnson before being overwhelmed with volume in the later rounds.

Ulanbekov should get the win here, as he has the potential to compete with the best in the division and will have the advantage wherever the fight goes in this matchup.

Prediction: Ulanbekov by Decision

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Mohammed Usman -172 vs. Hamdy Abdelwahab +140

Heavyweights open the card in this physically massive matchup. Mohammed Usman is a strong wrestler who can maintain a low volume but can also take rounds with a heavy top game or land big shots, as he did to finish Zac Pauga. Hamdy Abdelwahab is a stocky fighter with decent grappling skills and some power in his hands, although he is very inexperienced, and this inexperience is evident, especially later in fights.

I lean towards Usman here as he is the more experienced fighter who has the wrestling to match Abdelwahab and has shown the ability to find and attack his path to victory in matchups like his fight with Junior Tafa.

Prediction: Usman by Decision