Looking back at the betting action of UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

Looking back at the betting action of UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira

By Douglas Vegas Bets
Tuesday, May 24th 2022, 5:39AM, 3 months ago

UFC Vegas 55 was a cruel reminder of one of the more annoying variables to navigate when betting on MMA, judging. We saw three controversial split decisions in Las Vegas this weekend featuring Holly Holm, Santiago Ponzinibbio, and Erky Anders, and I had almost impressively bet on the wrong side of each one. This was a tough week but an important one to learn from as each fight came with different lessons, so let's break them down.

Holm -250 Vieira +190

In the Bantamweight main event, I picked Holm to win a decision, and many believe that should have been the result; however, it was not. Whether or not you agree with the result, this was not a spot where I needed to make a bet as I acknowledged her age and layoff, which appeared to play significant factors, yet chose to ignore them. This was a simple mistake that I will not make again going forward. As for each fighter, Holm looked rough compared to what we are used to seeing from her, and she is not the Holly of old this is important to note if she continues to fight, which there has been no indication against. Vieira won this fight by outboxing Holm, which was something to note; however, she spent a large portion of the fight being controlled in the clinch, which was very surprising and nearly cost her the fight. If she is fighting for the title next, I expect her to be a significant underdog whether Julianna Pena or Amanda Nunes holds the belt.

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Ponzinibbio +100 Pereira -128

This fight was incredible and a truly impressive showing from each fighter, but Pereira, in particular, impressed me as I thought he won the bout showing his evolution has reached a point where he is not an untamed talent but now is ready to compete with the high-level strikers that are ahead at Welterweight. I lost a play on Ponzinibbio here without much regret but probably a spot I could have avoided, in particular, once I saw the size difference between the two, which played an apparent factor in the fight in my eyes. I made that loss back on the fight going the distance which was a bit of a steep price, but I did not see either guy getting finished, and despite some big shots from Pereira, both of them showed their durability, making it through this one.

Njokuani -233 Todorovic +175

There was one definitive on this card, and that was this fight as Njokuani unleashed a vicious elbow that ended Dusko Todorovic in the very first round. Njokuani showcased some grappling defense in this one as Todorovic unsurprisingly wanted nothing to do with the striking and did well to force grappling exchanges early. We may see Njokuani get a big step up in competition, but he has proven to have an excellent skill set to go along with his freakish knockout power. This guy can make some real noise at Middleweight.

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Viana +103 Ricci -132

This felt more like watching a combat jiu-jitsu match than an MMA fight, as Viana was very content to work from the bottom, ultimately costing her the fight. We knew that both women were credentialed grapplers and would have some even exchanges, but Ricci proved to have better offensive wrestling, which is essential for BJJ specialists to develop. It was game plan that cost Viana this fight, and knowing that she could not adapt as the fight went on makes her difficult to bet on without the right matchup going forward.

Anders +165 Park -217

This fight was a coin flip going to the cards, and I still feel like it should have been the same on the betting line going into the contest, as there was no reason for Park to be that large a favorite. This one is a tough loss as a bettor as I feel I was on the right side of this line, but it counts the same as any other loss. Anders did not look like a sizeable underdog, but he did not look great either, as a lack of speed and cardio was clear, and because of that, I will have a tough time backing Anders again in the future.

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Chase Hooper +143 Felipe Corales -185

I had to mention this fight as Chase Hooper was the performance of the night by far, and he proved me wrong. My mistake on this fight was betting against a very young fighter who had plenty of time off to work on his game and clearly took advantage of every second. Not to mention his mentality seemed much different when in past performances, he had looked hesitant and technical, but Saturday, he was all pressure and aggression. I underestimated Hooper and paid, and I will be paying close attention to his next matchup.

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